Portfolio Real Cumulative Growth
YearReal Cumulative GrowthEst. Return (SD 0)Est. Return (+1σ)Est. Return (+2σ)Est. Return (+3σ)Est. Return (−1σ)Est. Return (−2σ)Est. Return (−3σ)Diff. to Mean
197093.43%71.40%83.25%97.06%113.17%61.24%52.52%45.05%-23.58%
1971108.67%76.30%88.96%103.73%120.94%65.44%56.13%48.14%-29.79%
1972130.27%81.54%95.07%110.85%129.25%69.94%59.98%51.44%-37.41%
1973105.00%87.14%101.60%118.46%138.12%74.74%64.10%54.98%-17.01%
197469.15%93.12%108.58%126.60%147.61%79.87%68.50%58.75%34.67%
197585.44%99.52%116.03%135.29%157.74%85.35%73.20%62.79%16.48%
197694.02%106.35%124.00%144.58%168.57%91.21%78.23%67.10%13.12%
197789.51%113.65%132.51%154.51%180.15%97.48%83.60%71.70%26.98%
197894.64%121.46%141.61%165.12%192.52%104.17%89.34%76.63%28.34%
197994.33%129.80%151.34%176.45%205.74%111.32%95.48%81.89%37.60%
1980107.27%138.71%161.73%188.57%219.86%118.97%102.03%87.51%29.31%
198194.08%148.23%172.83%201.52%234.96%127.14%109.04%93.52%57.56%
1982101.05%158.41%184.70%215.35%251.09%135.87%116.53%99.94%56.77%
1983118.20%169.29%197.38%230.14%268.33%145.19%124.53%106.80%43.23%
1984119.02%180.91%210.94%245.94%286.76%155.16%133.08%114.14%52.00%
1985159.52%193.34%225.42%262.83%306.45%165.82%142.22%121.97%21.20%
1986213.66%206.61%240.90%280.88%327.49%177.20%151.98%130.35%-3.30%
1987227.56%220.80%257.44%300.16%349.98%189.37%162.42%139.30%-2.97%
1988264.96%235.96%275.12%320.77%374.01%202.37%173.57%148.87%-10.94%
1989321.91%252.16%294.01%342.80%399.69%216.27%185.49%159.09%-21.67%
1990273.71%269.48%314.20%366.34%427.13%231.12%198.22%170.01%-1.55%
1991337.91%287.98%335.77%391.49%456.46%246.99%211.84%181.68%-14.78%
1992332.43%307.75%358.82%418.37%487.80%263.95%226.38%194.16%-7.42%
1993396.67%328.88%383.46%447.10%521.30%282.07%241.92%207.49%-17.09%
1994392.85%351.47%409.79%477.80%557.09%301.44%258.54%221.74%-10.53%
1995478.93%375.60%437.93%510.61%595.34%322.14%276.29%236.96%-21.58%
1996536.25%401.39%468.00%545.67%636.22%344.26%295.26%253.23%-25.15%
1997620.77%428.95%500.14%583.13%679.91%367.90%315.53%270.62%-30.90%
1998725.79%458.40%534.48%623.17%726.59%393.16%337.20%289.20%-36.84%
1999902.86%489.88%571.18%665.96%776.48%420.15%360.35%309.06%-45.74%
2000758.69%523.52%610.39%711.69%829.80%449.00%385.10%330.28%-31.00%
2001644.12%559.46%652.31%760.56%886.78%479.83%411.54%352.96%-13.14%
2002514.87%597.88%697.10%812.78%947.66%512.78%439.80%377.20%16.12%
2003686.49%638.93%744.96%868.59%1,012.73%547.99%469.99%403.10%-6.93%
2004772.09%682.80%796.11%928.23%1,082.27%585.62%502.26%430.78%-11.56%
2005825.47%729.69%850.78%991.97%1,156.59%625.83%536.75%460.36%-11.60%
2006967.11%779.79%909.20%1,060.08%1,236.00%668.80%573.61%491.96%-19.37%
20071,022.47%833.33%971.62%1,132.87%1,320.87%714.72%612.99%525.75%-18.50%
2008616.80%890.55%1,038.34%1,210.66%1,411.57%763.80%655.08%561.84%44.38%
2009795.25%951.70%1,109.64%1,293.78%1,508.49%816.24%700.07%600.42%19.67%
2010897.50%1,017.05%1,185.83%1,382.62%1,612.07%872.29%748.13%641.65%13.32%
2011829.43%1,086.88%1,267.25%1,477.56%1,722.76%932.18%799.50%685.71%31.04%
2012956.09%1,161.51%1,354.27%1,579.01%1,841.05%996.19%854.40%732.79%21.49%
20131,194.12%1,241.27%1,447.26%1,687.43%1,967.47%1,064.59%913.07%783.11%3.95%
20141,253.52%1,326.50%1,546.63%1,803.30%2,102.56%1,137.69%975.76%836.88%5.82%
20151,257.56%1,417.58%1,652.83%1,927.12%2,246.93%1,215.81%1,042.76%894.34%12.72%
20161,346.87%1,514.91%1,766.32%2,059.44%2,401.21%1,299.29%1,114.36%955.75%12.48%
20171,631.12%1,618.93%1,887.60%2,200.85%2,566.09%1,388.51%1,190.88%1,021.38%-0.75%
20181,458.17%1,730.10%2,017.21%2,351.97%2,742.29%1,483.85%1,272.65%1,091.51%18.65%
20191,812.71%1,848.89%2,155.72%2,513.47%2,930.58%1,585.73%1,360.03%1,166.46%2.00%
20202,094.14%1,975.84%2,303.74%2,686.05%3,131.81%1,694.62%1,453.42%1,246.55%-5.65%
20212,331.11%2,111.51%2,461.92%2,870.48%3,346.85%1,810.98%1,553.22%1,332.14%-9.42%
20221,794.75%2,256.50%2,630.97%3,067.58%3,576.66%1,935.33%1,659.87%1,423.61%25.73%
20232,118.57%2,411.44%2,811.62%3,278.22%3,822.24%2,068.21%1,773.84%1,521.36%13.82%
20242,390.43%2,577.02%3,004.68%3,503.31%4,084.69%2,210.22%1,895.64%1,625.83%7.81%
20252,874.71%2,753.96%3,210.99%3,743.86%4,365.16%2,361.99%2,025.80%1,737.46%-4.20%
20263,164.94%2,943.06%3,431.47%4,000.93%4,664.89%2,524.17%2,164.90%1,856.76%-7.01%
20273,145.14%3,667.09%4,275.65%4,985.20%2,697.49%2,313.55%1,984.26%-0.63%
20283,361.10%3,918.88%4,569.23%5,327.51%2,882.71%2,472.41%2,120.50%3.05%
20293,591.89%4,187.97%4,882.97%5,693.31%3,080.65%2,642.17%2,266.11%4.31%
20303,838.52%4,475.53%5,218.26%6,084.24%3,292.18%2,823.59%2,421.71%4.94%
20314,102.09%4,782.84%5,576.56%6,502.01%3,518.23%3,017.47%2,587.99%5.32%
20324,383.75%5,111.25%5,959.47%6,948.46%3,759.80%3,224.66%2,765.69%5.58%
20334,684.76%5,462.21%6,368.67%7,425.57%4,017.97%3,446.08%2,955.59%5.76%
20345,006.43%5,837.26%6,805.97%7,935.44%4,293.86%3,682.70%3,158.54%5.90%
20355,350.19%6,238.07%7,273.29%8,480.31%4,588.69%3,935.57%3,375.41%6.01%
20365,717.56%6,666.40%7,772.71%9,062.60%4,903.77%4,205.80%3,607.18%6.09%
20376,110.15%7,124.14%8,306.41%9,684.88%5,240.48%4,494.59%3,854.87%6.16%
20386,529.69%7,613.31%8,876.76%10,349.88%5,600.31%4,803.21%4,119.56%6.22%
20396,978.05%8,136.07%9,486.27%11,060.54%5,984.85%5,133.01%4,402.42%6.27%
20407,457.19%8,694.73%10,137.64%11,820.00%6,395.79%5,485.47%4,704.71%6.31%
20417,969.23%9,291.74%10,833.73%12,631.61%6,834.95%5,862.12%5,027.75%6.35%
20428,516.43%9,929.75%11,577.61%13,498.94%7,304.27%6,264.63%5,372.98%6.38%
20439,101.20%10,611.56%12,372.58%14,425.83%7,805.80%6,694.79%5,741.91%6.41%
20449,726.12%11,340.19%13,222.13%15,416.37%8,341.78%7,154.48%6,136.17%6.44%
204510,393.95%12,118.85%14,130.01%16,474.92%8,914.56%7,645.73%6,557.50%6.46%
204611,107.64%12,950.98%15,100.23%17,606.15%9,526.67%8,170.72%7,007.76%6.48%
204711,870.34%13,840.25%16,137.07%18,815.05%10,180.81%8,731.75%7,488.94%6.50%
204812,685.40%14,790.57%17,245.10%20,106.97%10,879.86%9,331.31%8,003.16%6.51%
204913,556.43%15,806.15%18,429.22%21,487.59%11,626.91%9,972.03%8,552.69%6.53%
205014,487.27%16,891.46%19,694.64%22,963.01%12,425.26%10,656.75%9,139.95%6.54%
205115,482.02%18,051.29%21,046.95%24,539.74%13,278.43%11,388.48%9,767.54%6.56%
205216,545.07%19,290.77%22,492.12%26,224.74%14,190.18%12,170.46%10,438.21%6.57%
205317,681.12%20,615.35%24,036.51%28,025.43%15,164.53%13,006.13%11,154.94%6.58%
205418,895.18%22,030.88%25,686.95%29,949.76%16,205.79%13,899.18%11,920.88%6.59%
205520,192.59%23,543.60%27,450.72%32,006.23%17,318.54%14,853.56%12,739.42%6.60%
205621,579.09%25,160.20%29,335.59%34,203.90%18,507.70%15,873.46%13,614.16%6.61%
Portfolio Draw Down
YearNominal DrawdownReal Drawdown
1970-1.37%-6.57%
1971-0.00%-0.00%
1972-0.00%-0.00%
1973-12.38%-19.40%
1974-35.17%-46.92%
1975-14.34%-34.41%
1976-1.16%-27.83%
1977-0.00%-31.29%
1978-0.00%-27.35%
1979-0.00%-27.59%
1980-0.00%-17.66%
1981-4.47%-27.78%
1982-0.00%-22.43%
1983-0.00%-9.27%
1984-0.00%-8.64%
1985-0.00%-0.00%
1986-0.00%-0.00%
1987-0.00%-0.00%
1988-0.00%-0.00%
1989-0.00%-0.00%
1990-9.78%-14.97%
1991-0.00%-0.00%
1992-0.00%-1.62%
1993-0.00%-0.00%
1994-0.00%-0.96%
1995-0.00%-0.00%
1996-0.00%-0.00%
1997-0.00%-0.00%
1998-0.00%-0.00%
1999-0.00%-0.00%
2000-13.12%-15.97%
2001-25.10%-28.66%
2002-38.70%-42.97%
2003-16.73%-23.96%
2004-3.30%-14.48%
2005-0.00%-8.57%
2006-0.00%-0.00%
2007-0.00%-0.00%
2008-39.62%-39.68%
2009-20.04%-22.22%
2010-8.40%-12.22%
2011-12.84%-18.88%
2012-0.00%-6.49%
2013-0.00%-0.00%
2014-0.00%-0.00%
2015-0.00%-0.00%
2016-0.00%-0.00%
2017-0.00%-0.00%
2018-8.90%-10.60%
2019-0.00%-0.00%
2020-0.00%-0.00%
2021-0.00%-0.00%
2022-18.04%-23.01%
2023-0.01%-9.12%
2024-0.00%-0.00%
2025-0.00%-0.00%
2026-0.00%-0.00%
Portfolio 20 Year Stats
YearAnnualized Real ReturnMWR 20yrP-MWR 20yr
19706.02%5.49%3.79%
19715.52%6.11%4.02%
19725.84%5.47%3.71%
19734.80%4.74%2.88%
19746.87%6.06%4.45%
19759.07%9.63%7.93%
19769.00%8.46%6.95%
19779.10%8.27%6.82%
197810.17%9.32%7.97%
197910.72%9.58%8.33%
198011.96%10.48%9.38%
198110.28%10.17%8.73%
198210.10%12.70%10.85%
19838.48%13.27%10.66%
19849.19%12.70%10.51%
19859.80%14.09%11.92%
19868.57%11.93%9.63%
19877.84%9.86%7.68%
19887.80%10.03%7.80%
19894.32%9.34%5.33%
19904.63%8.12%4.83%
19916.12%10.04%6.98%
19924.59%8.74%5.18%
19935.42%9.37%6.11%
19945.66%8.36%5.58%
19955.97%8.94%6.14%
19964.95%7.82%4.84%
19974.71%7.33%4.41%
19984.95%6.63%4.11%
19993.55%5.91%2.97%
20003.55%4.90%2.46%
20015.21%5.98%3.81%
20026.64%7.32%5.30%
20036.44%9.67%6.89%
20045.80%7.79%5.26%
20055.81%7.31%4.95%
20066.44%7.19%5.13%
20076.11%6.47%4.49%
Portfolio 30 Year Stats
YearAnnualized Real ReturnSWR 30yrP-SWR 30yr
19707.61%4.84%4.30%
19717.23%5.41%4.74%
19726.11%4.88%4.06%
19734.69%4.24%3.17%
19746.46%5.44%4.61%
19758.37%8.66%7.88%
19767.85%7.60%6.82%
19778.08%7.42%6.69%
19788.46%8.35%7.62%
19796.45%8.55%7.24%
19807.36%9.24%8.15%
19817.34%8.85%7.79%
19827.53%10.94%9.70%
19837.78%11.28%10.09%
19848.01%10.73%9.67%
19858.16%11.80%10.68%
19867.12%9.85%8.60%
19876.33%8.05%6.77%
19886.79%8.11%6.97%
19895.85%7.48%6.12%
19905.93%6.56%5.40%
19917.02%8.16%7.09%
19926.65%7.11%6.08%
19935.78%7.70%6.27%
19945.74%6.88%5.59%
19956.20%7.36%6.15%
19966.16%6.43%5.36%
19976.10%6.07%5.04%
Portfolio Weights
YearVTSAXVTMGXVEMAX
197060.00%32.00%8.00%
197160.00%32.00%8.00%
197260.00%32.00%8.00%
197360.00%32.00%8.00%
197460.00%32.00%8.00%
197560.00%32.00%8.00%
197660.00%32.00%8.00%
197760.00%32.00%8.00%
197860.00%32.00%8.00%
197960.00%32.00%8.00%
198060.00%32.00%8.00%
198160.00%32.00%8.00%
198260.00%32.00%8.00%
198360.00%32.00%8.00%
198460.00%32.00%8.00%
198560.00%32.00%8.00%
198660.00%32.00%8.00%
198760.00%32.00%8.00%
198860.00%32.00%8.00%
198960.00%32.00%8.00%
199060.00%32.00%8.00%
199160.00%32.00%8.00%
199260.00%32.00%8.00%
199360.00%32.00%8.00%
199460.00%32.00%8.00%
199560.00%32.00%8.00%
199660.00%32.00%8.00%
199760.00%32.00%8.00%
199860.00%32.00%8.00%
199960.00%32.00%8.00%
200060.00%32.00%8.00%
200160.00%32.00%8.00%
200260.00%32.00%8.00%
200360.00%32.00%8.00%
200460.00%32.00%8.00%
200560.00%32.00%8.00%
200660.00%32.00%8.00%
200760.00%32.00%8.00%
200860.00%32.00%8.00%
200960.00%32.00%8.00%
201060.00%32.00%8.00%
201160.00%32.00%8.00%
201260.00%32.00%8.00%
201360.00%32.00%8.00%
201460.00%32.00%8.00%
201560.00%32.00%8.00%
201660.00%32.00%8.00%
201760.00%32.00%8.00%
201860.00%32.00%8.00%
201960.00%32.00%8.00%
202060.00%32.00%8.00%
202160.00%32.00%8.00%
202260.00%32.00%8.00%
202360.00%32.00%8.00%
202460.00%32.00%8.00%
202560.00%32.00%8.00%
202660.00%32.00%8.00%
Name:P3 (60% VTSAX, 32% VTMGX, 8% VEMAX)
TickerWeight
VTSAX60.00%
VTMGX32.00%
VEMAX8.00%
Total Weight100%
100%
Total
VTSAXVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares60.00%
VTMGXVanguard Developed Markets Index Fund Admiral Shares32.00%
VEMAXVanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares8.00%
MetricNominalReal
Annual Return10.39%6.25%
StdDev16.62%16.60%
Skewness
-0.1186-0.1099
Kurtosis
0.59660.3833
Sharpe Ratio0.4382
Estimated Return6.87%
Max Draw Down-39.62%-46.92%
+1StdDev
+2StdDev
+3StdDev
-1StdDev
-2StdDev
-3StdDev
Estimated Mean
Diff to Mean
Real Cumulative Growth
VTSAX
VTMGX
VEMAX
Nominal
Real
Rolling 20 year real return
Max Withdrawal Rate 20
Permanent Max Withdrawal Rate 20
Rolling 30 year real return
Max Withdrawal Rate 30
Permanent Max Withdrawal Rate 30
Data Sources