| Year | Real Cumulative Growth | Est. Return (SD 0) | Est. Return (+1σ) | Est. Return (+2σ) | Est. Return (+3σ) | Est. Return (−1σ) | Est. Return (−2σ) | Est. Return (−3σ) | Diff. to Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 94.12% | 88.57% | 103.03% | 119.85% | 139.42% | 76.14% | 65.45% | 56.26% | -5.91% |
| 1971 | 115.72% | 95.64% | 111.26% | 129.43% | 150.56% | 82.22% | 70.68% | 60.76% | -17.35% |
| 1972 | 141.39% | 103.29% | 120.15% | 139.77% | 162.59% | 88.79% | 76.33% | 65.61% | -26.95% |
| 1973 | 113.17% | 111.54% | 129.75% | 150.94% | 175.58% | 95.88% | 82.43% | 70.86% | -1.44% |
| 1974 | 76.56% | 120.45% | 140.12% | 163.00% | 189.61% | 103.55% | 89.01% | 76.52% | 57.33% |
| 1975 | 96.07% | 130.08% | 151.32% | 176.02% | 204.76% | 111.82% | 96.12% | 82.63% | 35.40% |
| 1976 | 111.44% | 140.47% | 163.41% | 190.09% | 221.13% | 120.75% | 103.81% | 89.23% | 26.05% |
| 1977 | 116.83% | 151.70% | 176.46% | 205.28% | 238.79% | 130.40% | 112.10% | 96.37% | 29.84% |
| 1978 | 128.54% | 163.82% | 190.56% | 221.68% | 257.88% | 140.82% | 121.06% | 104.07% | 27.45% |
| 1979 | 134.46% | 176.91% | 205.79% | 239.39% | 278.48% | 152.08% | 130.73% | 112.38% | 31.57% |
| 1980 | 149.60% | 191.04% | 222.24% | 258.52% | 300.73% | 164.23% | 141.18% | 121.36% | 27.70% |
| 1981 | 138.66% | 206.31% | 239.99% | 279.18% | 324.76% | 177.35% | 152.46% | 131.06% | 48.78% |
| 1982 | 149.66% | 222.79% | 259.17% | 301.49% | 350.72% | 191.52% | 164.64% | 141.53% | 48.87% |
| 1983 | 183.22% | 240.60% | 279.88% | 325.58% | 378.74% | 206.83% | 177.80% | 152.84% | 31.31% |
| 1984 | 187.39% | 259.82% | 302.25% | 351.60% | 409.00% | 223.35% | 192.00% | 165.05% | 38.66% |
| 1985 | 254.20% | 280.58% | 326.40% | 379.69% | 441.69% | 241.20% | 207.35% | 178.24% | 10.38% |
| 1986 | 336.79% | 303.00% | 352.48% | 410.03% | 476.98% | 260.47% | 223.91% | 192.48% | -10.03% |
| 1987 | 365.16% | 327.22% | 380.64% | 442.79% | 515.09% | 281.29% | 241.81% | 207.87% | -10.39% |
| 1988 | 439.40% | 353.36% | 411.06% | 478.18% | 556.25% | 303.76% | 261.13% | 224.48% | -19.58% |
| 1989 | 527.75% | 381.60% | 443.91% | 516.39% | 600.70% | 328.04% | 281.99% | 242.41% | -27.69% |
| 1990 | 432.76% | 412.09% | 479.38% | 557.65% | 648.70% | 354.25% | 304.53% | 261.78% | -4.78% |
| 1991 | 536.88% | 445.02% | 517.68% | 602.21% | 700.54% | 382.56% | 328.86% | 282.70% | -17.11% |
| 1992 | 543.75% | 480.58% | 559.05% | 650.33% | 756.51% | 413.12% | 355.14% | 305.29% | -11.62% |
| 1993 | 684.60% | 518.98% | 603.72% | 702.29% | 816.96% | 446.14% | 383.52% | 329.69% | -24.19% |
| 1994 | 679.90% | 560.45% | 651.96% | 758.41% | 882.24% | 481.79% | 414.16% | 356.03% | -17.57% |
| 1995 | 789.07% | 605.23% | 704.06% | 819.01% | 952.74% | 520.28% | 447.26% | 384.48% | -23.30% |
| 1996 | 884.88% | 653.60% | 760.31% | 884.46% | 1,028.87% | 561.86% | 482.99% | 415.20% | -26.14% |
| 1997 | 992.49% | 705.82% | 821.07% | 955.13% | 1,111.09% | 606.75% | 521.59% | 448.38% | -28.88% |
| 1998 | 1,052.42% | 762.22% | 886.68% | 1,031.45% | 1,199.87% | 655.24% | 563.27% | 484.21% | -27.57% |
| 1999 | 1,304.69% | 823.13% | 957.53% | 1,113.87% | 1,295.75% | 707.59% | 608.28% | 522.90% | -36.91% |
| 2000 | 1,190.37% | 888.90% | 1,034.04% | 1,202.88% | 1,399.28% | 764.14% | 656.88% | 564.68% | -25.33% |
| 2001 | 1,116.96% | 959.93% | 1,116.67% | 1,299.00% | 1,511.10% | 825.19% | 709.37% | 609.80% | -14.06% |
| 2002 | 969.77% | 1,036.64% | 1,205.90% | 1,402.80% | 1,631.84% | 891.13% | 766.05% | 658.53% | 6.90% |
| 2003 | 1,365.81% | 1,119.47% | 1,302.26% | 1,514.89% | 1,762.24% | 962.34% | 827.27% | 711.15% | -18.04% |
| 2004 | 1,608.38% | 1,208.92% | 1,406.32% | 1,635.94% | 1,903.05% | 1,039.24% | 893.37% | 767.98% | -24.84% |
| 2005 | 1,770.52% | 1,305.52% | 1,518.69% | 1,766.66% | 2,055.12% | 1,122.28% | 964.76% | 829.34% | -26.26% |
| 2006 | 2,108.62% | 1,409.84% | 1,640.04% | 1,907.83% | 2,219.33% | 1,211.96% | 1,041.85% | 895.61% | -33.14% |
| 2007 | 2,144.84% | 1,522.50% | 1,771.09% | 2,060.27% | 2,396.67% | 1,308.80% | 1,125.10% | 967.18% | -29.02% |
| 2008 | 1,309.98% | 1,644.16% | 1,912.61% | 2,224.90% | 2,588.18% | 1,413.38% | 1,215.00% | 1,044.46% | 25.51% |
| 2009 | 1,736.67% | 1,775.54% | 2,065.44% | 2,402.69% | 2,795.00% | 1,526.32% | 1,312.08% | 1,127.92% | 2.24% |
| 2010 | 2,012.65% | 1,917.41% | 2,230.49% | 2,594.68% | 3,018.33% | 1,648.28% | 1,416.93% | 1,218.05% | -4.73% |
| 2011 | 1,798.52% | 2,070.63% | 2,408.72% | 2,802.01% | 3,259.52% | 1,779.99% | 1,530.15% | 1,315.38% | 15.13% |
| 2012 | 2,069.99% | 2,236.08% | 2,601.19% | 3,025.91% | 3,519.98% | 1,922.23% | 1,652.42% | 1,420.48% | 8.02% |
| 2013 | 2,549.83% | 2,414.76% | 2,809.04% | 3,267.70% | 3,801.25% | 2,075.82% | 1,784.46% | 1,533.99% | -5.30% |
| 2014 | 2,609.55% | 2,607.72% | 3,033.50% | 3,528.81% | 4,104.99% | 2,241.70% | 1,927.05% | 1,656.57% | -0.07% |
| 2015 | 2,528.35% | 2,816.09% | 3,275.90% | 3,810.78% | 4,433.00% | 2,420.82% | 2,081.03% | 1,788.94% | 11.38% |
| 2016 | 2,809.53% | 3,041.11% | 3,537.66% | 4,115.29% | 4,787.23% | 2,614.26% | 2,247.32% | 1,931.88% | 8.24% |
| 2017 | 3,337.02% | 3,284.12% | 3,820.35% | 4,444.13% | 5,169.76% | 2,823.16% | 2,426.90% | 2,086.25% | -1.59% |
| 2018 | 2,869.52% | 3,546.54% | 4,125.62% | 4,799.24% | 5,582.86% | 3,048.75% | 2,620.82% | 2,252.96% | 23.59% |
| 2019 | 3,418.78% | 3,829.93% | 4,455.28% | 5,182.73% | 6,028.97% | 3,292.36% | 2,830.24% | 2,432.99% | 12.03% |
| 2020 | 3,695.38% | 4,135.97% | 4,811.29% | 5,596.87% | 6,510.72% | 3,555.44% | 3,056.40% | 2,627.40% | 11.92% |
| 2021 | 4,207.48% | 4,466.46% | 5,195.74% | 6,044.10% | 7,030.97% | 3,839.54% | 3,300.62% | 2,837.34% | 6.16% |
| 2022 | 3,402.29% | 4,823.36% | 5,610.91% | 6,527.06% | 7,592.79% | 4,146.35% | 3,564.36% | 3,064.07% | 41.77% |
| 2023 | 3,922.98% | 5,208.78% | 6,059.26% | 7,048.61% | 8,199.50% | 4,477.67% | 3,849.18% | 3,308.90% | 32.78% |
| 2024 | 4,228.54% | 5,624.99% | 6,543.44% | 7,611.84% | 8,854.70% | 4,835.46% | 4,156.75% | 3,573.31% | 33.02% |
| 2025 | 5,096.71% | 6,074.47% | 7,066.30% | 8,220.08% | 9,562.24% | 5,221.85% | 4,488.91% | 3,858.84% | 19.18% |
| 2026 | 5,692.83% | 6,559.86% | 7,630.94% | 8,876.92% | 10,326.33% | 5,639.11% | 4,847.60% | 4,167.18% | 15.23% |
| 2027 | 7,084.03% | 8,240.70% | 9,586.24% | 11,151.47% | 6,089.71% | 5,234.95% | 4,500.17% | 24.44% | |
| 2028 | 7,650.09% | 8,899.19% | 10,352.24% | 12,042.54% | 6,576.32% | 5,653.26% | 4,859.76% | 15.92% | |
| 2029 | 8,261.38% | 9,610.29% | 11,179.45% | 13,004.82% | 7,101.81% | 6,104.99% | 5,248.09% | 13.22% | |
| 2030 | 8,921.52% | 10,378.22% | 12,072.76% | 14,043.99% | 7,669.29% | 6,592.82% | 5,667.45% | 11.89% | |
| 2031 | 9,634.41% | 11,207.51% | 13,037.46% | 15,166.20% | 8,282.12% | 7,119.63% | 6,120.31% | 11.10% | |
| 2032 | 10,404.26% | 12,103.06% | 14,079.23% | 16,378.08% | 8,943.91% | 7,688.53% | 6,609.36% | 10.57% | |
| 2033 | 11,235.63% | 13,070.17% | 15,204.26% | 17,686.79% | 9,658.59% | 8,302.90% | 7,137.50% | 10.20% | |
| 2034 | 12,133.43% | 14,114.56% | 16,419.18% | 19,100.08% | 10,430.37% | 8,966.35% | 7,707.83% | 9.92% | |
| 2035 | 13,102.97% | 15,242.41% | 17,731.17% | 20,626.30% | 11,263.82% | 9,682.82% | 8,323.73% | 9.71% | |
| 2036 | 14,149.98% | 16,460.38% | 19,148.01% | 22,274.48% | 12,163.88% | 10,456.54% | 8,988.85% | 9.53% | |
| 2037 | 15,280.66% | 17,775.67% | 20,678.06% | 24,054.35% | 13,135.85% | 11,292.09% | 9,707.12% | 9.39% | |
| 2038 | 16,501.68% | 19,196.06% | 22,330.37% | 25,976.45% | 14,185.49% | 12,194.40% | 10,482.78% | 9.27% | |
| 2039 | 17,820.27% | 20,729.95% | 24,114.71% | 28,052.14% | 15,319.00% | 13,168.81% | 11,320.43% | 9.17% | |
| 2040 | 19,244.23% | 22,386.41% | 26,041.64% | 30,293.69% | 16,543.09% | 14,221.09% | 12,225.00% | 9.09% | |
| 2041 | 20,781.97% | 24,175.23% | 28,122.53% | 32,714.35% | 17,864.99% | 15,357.45% | 13,201.86% | 9.02% | |
| 2042 | 22,442.58% | 26,106.99% | 30,369.71% | 35,328.44% | 19,292.52% | 16,584.60% | 14,256.77% | 8.95% | |
| 2043 | 24,235.89% | 28,193.10% | 32,796.44% | 38,151.41% | 20,834.12% | 17,909.82% | 15,395.98% | 8.89% | |
| 2044 | 26,172.50% | 30,445.92% | 35,417.09% | 41,199.96% | 22,498.90% | 19,340.93% | 16,626.22% | 8.84% | |
| 2045 | 28,263.85% | 32,878.74% | 38,247.15% | 44,492.10% | 24,296.71% | 20,886.40% | 17,954.77% | 8.80% | |
| 2046 | 30,522.32% | 35,505.97% | 41,303.35% | 48,047.31% | 26,238.18% | 22,555.36% | 19,389.47% | 8.76% | |
| 2047 | 32,961.25% | 38,343.13% | 44,603.75% | 51,886.61% | 28,334.78% | 24,357.68% | 20,938.81% | 8.72% | |
| 2048 | 35,595.07% | 41,406.99% | 48,167.88% | 56,032.68% | 30,598.91% | 26,304.02% | 22,611.96% | 8.69% | |
| 2049 | 38,439.34% | 44,715.68% | 52,016.81% | 60,510.06% | 33,043.96% | 28,405.88% | 24,418.80% | 8.66% | |
| 2050 | 41,510.90% | 48,288.75% | 56,173.29% | 65,345.21% | 35,684.39% | 30,675.69% | 26,370.02% | 8.63% | |
| 2051 | 44,827.89% | 52,147.34% | 60,661.90% | 70,566.71% | 38,535.80% | 33,126.88% | 28,477.16% | 8.60% | |
| 2052 | 48,409.93% | 56,314.25% | 65,509.18% | 76,205.45% | 41,615.06% | 35,773.93% | 30,752.67% | 8.58% | |
| 2053 | 52,278.20% | 60,814.13% | 70,743.79% | 82,294.77% | 44,940.38% | 38,632.50% | 33,210.01% | 8.56% | |
| 2054 | 56,455.57% | 65,673.57% | 76,396.68% | 88,870.65% | 48,531.41% | 41,719.49% | 35,863.70% | 8.54% | |
| 2055 | 60,966.73% | 70,921.32% | 82,501.27% | 95,972.00% | 52,409.38% | 45,053.15% | 38,729.45% | 8.52% | |
| 2056 | 65,838.37% | 76,588.39% | 89,093.66% | 103,640.78% | 56,597.23% | 48,653.19% | 41,824.18% | 8.50% |
| Year | Nominal Drawdown | Real Drawdown |
|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -0.63% | -5.88% |
| 1971 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1972 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1973 | -12.98% | -19.96% |
| 1974 | -33.87% | -45.85% |
| 1975 | -11.26% | -32.05% |
| 1976 | -0.00% | -21.18% |
| 1977 | -0.00% | -17.37% |
| 1978 | -0.00% | -9.09% |
| 1979 | -0.00% | -4.90% |
| 1980 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1981 | -0.00% | -7.31% |
| 1982 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1983 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1984 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1985 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1986 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1987 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1988 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1989 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1990 | -12.99% | -18.00% |
| 1991 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1992 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1993 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1994 | -0.00% | -0.69% |
| 1995 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1996 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1997 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1998 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1999 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2000 | -5.67% | -8.76% |
| 2001 | -10.11% | -14.39% |
| 2002 | -20.10% | -25.67% |
| 2003 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2004 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2005 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2006 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2007 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2008 | -38.87% | -38.92% |
| 2009 | -16.75% | -19.03% |
| 2010 | -2.08% | -6.16% |
| 2011 | -9.91% | -16.15% |
| 2012 | -0.00% | -3.49% |
| 2013 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2014 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2015 | -2.40% | -3.11% |
| 2016 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2017 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2018 | -12.37% | -14.01% |
| 2019 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2020 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2021 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2022 | -13.92% | -19.14% |
| 2023 | -0.00% | -6.76% |
| 2024 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2025 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2026 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| Year | Annualized Real Return | MWR 20yr | P-MWR 20yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 8.67% | 6.91% | 5.60% |
| 1971 | 7.93% | 7.78% | 6.09% |
| 1972 | 7.98% | 6.74% | 5.29% |
| 1973 | 6.97% | 5.82% | 4.31% |
| 1974 | 9.42% | 7.60% | 6.34% |
| 1975 | 11.54% | 12.00% | 10.65% |
| 1976 | 11.10% | 10.70% | 9.40% |
| 1977 | 10.92% | 10.18% | 8.90% |
| 1978 | 11.29% | 10.66% | 9.40% |
| 1979 | 11.09% | 10.69% | 9.39% |
| 1980 | 12.03% | 11.28% | 10.12% |
| 1981 | 10.93% | 11.28% | 9.86% |
| 1982 | 11.00% | 13.50% | 11.83% |
| 1983 | 9.79% | 14.19% | 12.00% |
| 1984 | 10.57% | 13.17% | 11.40% |
| 1985 | 11.35% | 14.54% | 12.84% |
| 1986 | 10.19% | 12.29% | 10.53% |
| 1987 | 9.61% | 10.37% | 8.71% |
| 1988 | 9.26% | 10.48% | 8.69% |
| 1989 | 5.61% | 9.54% | 6.34% |
| 1990 | 6.14% | 8.48% | 5.90% |
| 1991 | 7.99% | 10.99% | 8.63% |
| 1992 | 6.23% | 9.69% | 6.80% |
| 1993 | 6.91% | 10.27% | 7.57% |
| 1994 | 6.80% | 8.82% | 6.45% |
| 1995 | 6.96% | 9.50% | 7.02% |
| 1996 | 6.00% | 8.80% | 6.06% |
| 1997 | 5.95% | 8.35% | 5.72% |
| 1998 | 6.25% | 7.90% | 5.55% |
| 1999 | 5.14% | 7.89% | 5.00% |
| 2000 | 4.93% | 6.70% | 4.14% |
| 2001 | 5.83% | 7.66% | 5.19% |
| 2002 | 6.86% | 8.61% | 6.32% |
| 2003 | 6.48% | 10.59% | 7.57% |
| 2004 | 5.42% | 8.13% | 5.30% |
| 2005 | 4.95% | 7.29% | 4.52% |
| 2006 | 5.43% | 6.94% | 4.53% |
| 2007 | 5.09% | 6.10% | 3.84% |
| Year | Annualized Real Return | SWR 30yr | P-SWR 30yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 8.94% | 6.25% | 5.78% |
| 1971 | 8.83% | 7.05% | 6.49% |
| 1972 | 7.85% | 6.13% | 5.50% |
| 1973 | 6.63% | 5.31% | 4.54% |
| 1974 | 8.66% | 6.95% | 6.38% |
| 1975 | 10.68% | 10.98% | 10.46% |
| 1976 | 10.20% | 9.77% | 9.24% |
| 1977 | 10.30% | 9.28% | 8.79% |
| 1978 | 10.19% | 9.71% | 9.18% |
| 1979 | 8.05% | 9.71% | 8.76% |
| 1980 | 8.90% | 10.18% | 9.39% |
| 1981 | 9.05% | 10.09% | 9.34% |
| 1982 | 8.92% | 12.01% | 11.09% |
| 1983 | 9.15% | 12.52% | 11.61% |
| 1984 | 9.17% | 11.57% | 10.74% |
| 1985 | 9.18% | 12.67% | 11.76% |
| 1986 | 7.96% | 10.59% | 9.52% |
| 1987 | 7.33% | 8.83% | 7.77% |
| 1988 | 7.65% | 8.83% | 7.87% |
| 1989 | 6.45% | 7.97% | 6.75% |
| 1990 | 6.43% | 7.11% | 6.02% |
| 1991 | 7.41% | 9.23% | 8.15% |
| 1992 | 7.10% | 8.10% | 7.07% |
| 1993 | 6.30% | 8.61% | 7.23% |
| 1994 | 5.99% | 7.37% | 6.08% |
| 1995 | 6.28% | 7.90% | 6.63% |
| 1996 | 6.42% | 7.29% | 6.16% |
| 1997 | 6.40% | 6.93% | 5.85% |
| Year | VTSAX | AVUV | VGSLX | VTMGX | AVDV | DFAE | VFIRX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1971 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1972 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1973 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1974 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1975 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1976 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1977 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1978 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1979 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1980 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1981 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1982 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1983 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1984 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1985 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1986 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1987 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1988 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1989 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1990 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1991 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1992 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1993 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1994 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1995 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1996 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1997 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1998 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 1999 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2000 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2001 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2002 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2003 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2004 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2005 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2006 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2007 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2008 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2009 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2010 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2011 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2012 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2013 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2014 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2015 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2016 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2017 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2018 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2019 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2020 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2021 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2022 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2023 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2024 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2025 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
| 2026 | 25.00% | 20.00% | 5.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 10.00% | 5.00% |
Name:John and Jane
| Ticker | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| VTSAX | 25.00% | |
| AVUV | 20.00% | |
| VGSLX | 5.00% | |
| VTMGX | 20.00% | |
| AVDV | 15.00% | |
| DFAE | 10.00% | |
| VFIRX | 5.00% | |
| Total Weight | 100% |
100%
Total
VTSAXVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares25.00%
AVUVAvantis US Small Cap Value ETF20.00%
VGSLXVanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares5.00%
VTMGXVanguard Developed Markets Index Fund Admiral Shares20.00%
AVDVAvantis International Small Cap Value ETF15.00%
DFAEDFA Emerging Markets Core Equity Portfolio10.00%
VFIRXVanguard Short-Term Treasury Index Fund Admiral Shares5.00%
| Metric | Nominal | Real |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Return | 11.54% | 7.35% |
| StdDev | 16.50% | 16.33% |
Skewness | -0.1027 | -0.0966 |
Kurtosis | 0.6693 | 0.5978 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.5076 | |
| Estimated Return | 7.99% | |
| Max Draw Down | -38.87% | -45.85% |
+1StdDev
+2StdDev
+3StdDev
-1StdDev
-2StdDev
-3StdDev
Estimated Mean
Diff to Mean
Real Cumulative Growth
VTSAX
AVUV
VGSLX
VTMGX
AVDV
DFAE
VFIRX
Nominal
Real
Rolling 20 year real return
Max Withdrawal Rate 20
Permanent Max Withdrawal Rate 20
Rolling 30 year real return
Max Withdrawal Rate 30
Permanent Max Withdrawal Rate 30