Portfolio Real Cumulative Growth
YearReal Cumulative GrowthEst. Return (SD 0)Est. Return (+1σ)Est. Return (+2σ)Est. Return (+3σ)Est. Return (−1σ)Est. Return (−2σ)Est. Return (−3σ)Diff. to Mean
197091.92%72.39%84.39%98.37%114.68%62.10%53.27%45.70%-21.25%
1971107.30%77.14%89.92%104.82%122.19%66.17%56.76%48.69%-28.11%
1972129.90%82.19%95.82%111.70%130.21%70.51%60.49%51.89%-36.72%
1973102.71%87.58%102.10%119.02%138.74%75.13%64.45%55.29%-14.72%
197468.86%93.33%108.79%126.82%147.84%80.06%68.68%58.91%35.54%
197585.74%99.45%115.93%135.14%157.53%85.31%73.18%62.78%15.98%
197693.81%105.97%123.53%144.00%167.86%90.90%77.98%66.89%12.96%
197789.06%112.91%131.63%153.44%178.87%96.86%83.09%71.28%26.78%
197894.52%120.32%140.26%163.50%190.60%103.21%88.54%75.95%27.29%
197993.86%128.21%149.45%174.22%203.09%109.98%94.34%80.93%36.59%
1980106.18%136.61%159.25%185.65%216.41%117.19%100.53%86.24%28.66%
198193.22%145.57%169.69%197.82%230.60%124.88%107.12%91.89%56.16%
1982100.90%155.11%180.82%210.79%245.72%133.06%114.15%97.92%53.73%
1983118.89%165.29%192.68%224.61%261.83%141.79%121.63%104.34%39.02%
1984119.32%176.12%205.31%239.34%279.00%151.08%129.61%111.18%47.61%
1985160.12%187.67%218.77%255.03%297.29%160.99%138.10%118.47%17.21%
1986215.31%199.98%233.12%271.75%316.79%171.55%147.16%126.24%-7.12%
1987230.20%213.09%248.40%289.57%337.56%182.79%156.81%134.51%-7.43%
1988265.64%227.06%264.69%308.55%359.69%194.78%167.09%143.33%-14.52%
1989314.94%241.95%282.04%328.78%383.27%207.55%178.04%152.73%-23.18%
1990265.80%257.81%300.54%350.34%408.40%221.16%189.72%162.75%-3.01%
1991320.58%274.71%320.24%373.31%435.18%235.66%202.16%173.42%-14.31%
1992310.77%292.73%341.24%397.79%463.71%251.11%215.41%184.79%-5.81%
1993362.63%311.92%363.61%423.87%494.12%267.58%229.54%196.90%-13.98%
1994361.58%332.37%387.45%451.67%526.52%285.12%244.59%209.81%-8.08%
1995442.65%354.16%412.86%481.28%561.04%303.81%260.62%223.57%-19.99%
1996493.27%377.39%439.93%512.84%597.83%323.74%277.71%238.23%-23.49%
1997573.72%402.13%468.77%546.46%637.02%344.96%295.92%253.85%-29.91%
1998678.66%428.50%499.51%582.29%678.79%367.58%315.32%270.49%-36.86%
1999834.47%456.59%532.26%620.47%723.30%391.68%336.00%288.23%-45.28%
2000705.53%486.53%567.16%661.15%770.72%417.36%358.03%307.13%-31.04%
2001593.36%518.43%604.35%704.50%821.26%444.73%381.50%327.27%-12.63%
2002471.76%552.42%643.97%750.70%875.10%473.89%406.52%348.72%17.10%
2003625.07%588.64%686.20%799.92%932.48%504.96%433.17%371.59%-5.83%
2004701.59%627.24%731.19%852.37%993.62%538.07%461.57%395.95%-10.60%
2005745.43%668.37%779.13%908.25%1,058.77%573.35%491.84%421.92%-10.34%
2006872.60%712.19%830.22%967.80%1,128.19%610.94%524.09%449.58%-18.38%
2007918.47%758.89%884.65%1,031.26%1,202.17%651.00%558.45%479.06%-17.37%
2008552.11%808.64%942.66%1,098.88%1,280.99%693.68%595.07%510.47%46.46%
2009709.43%861.66%1,004.46%1,170.93%1,364.98%739.17%634.08%543.94%21.46%
2010802.42%918.16%1,070.32%1,247.70%1,454.48%787.63%675.66%579.60%14.42%
2011739.13%978.36%1,140.50%1,329.51%1,549.84%839.27%719.96%617.61%32.37%
2012850.81%1,042.51%1,215.28%1,416.68%1,651.46%894.30%767.16%658.10%22.53%
20131,057.59%1,110.87%1,294.96%1,509.57%1,759.75%952.94%817.46%701.25%5.04%
20141,111.20%1,183.70%1,379.87%1,608.55%1,875.13%1,015.42%871.06%747.23%6.52%
20151,110.16%1,261.31%1,470.35%1,714.02%1,998.08%1,082.00%928.18%796.22%13.62%
20161,190.58%1,344.02%1,566.75%1,826.40%2,129.08%1,152.94%989.04%848.43%12.89%
20171,442.58%1,432.14%1,669.48%1,946.16%2,268.68%1,228.54%1,053.88%904.06%-0.72%
20181,289.92%1,526.04%1,778.94%2,073.76%2,417.43%1,309.09%1,122.98%963.34%18.30%
20191,602.59%1,626.10%1,895.58%2,209.73%2,575.94%1,394.92%1,196.62%1,026.50%1.47%
20201,851.55%1,732.72%2,019.87%2,354.62%2,744.84%1,486.39%1,275.07%1,093.80%-6.42%
20212,056.25%1,846.33%2,152.31%2,509.00%2,924.81%1,583.84%1,358.68%1,165.52%-10.21%
20221,581.60%1,967.39%2,293.43%2,673.51%3,116.58%1,687.69%1,447.76%1,241.94%24.39%
20231,864.16%2,096.38%2,443.81%2,848.81%3,320.93%1,798.35%1,542.69%1,323.37%12.46%
20242,107.12%2,233.84%2,604.04%3,035.60%3,538.67%1,916.26%1,643.84%1,410.14%6.01%
20252,526.58%2,380.30%2,774.78%3,234.63%3,770.69%2,041.91%1,751.62%1,502.60%-5.79%
20262,778.89%2,536.37%2,956.72%3,446.72%4,017.93%2,175.79%1,866.47%1,601.12%-8.73%
20272,702.68%3,150.58%3,672.71%4,281.37%2,318.45%1,988.85%1,706.10%-2.74%
20282,879.89%3,357.16%3,913.52%4,562.09%2,470.47%2,119.25%1,817.97%1.80%
20293,068.71%3,577.27%4,170.12%4,861.21%2,632.45%2,258.21%1,937.17%3.36%
20303,269.92%3,811.83%4,443.54%5,179.95%2,805.05%2,406.27%2,064.18%4.15%
20313,484.32%4,061.76%4,734.89%5,519.59%2,988.97%2,564.04%2,199.53%4.63%
20323,712.78%4,328.08%5,045.35%5,881.49%3,184.95%2,732.16%2,343.74%4.95%
20333,956.21%4,611.86%5,376.16%6,267.12%3,393.78%2,911.30%2,497.42%5.18%
20344,215.61%4,914.25%5,728.66%6,678.04%3,616.30%3,102.19%2,661.17%5.35%
20354,492.02%5,236.46%6,104.27%7,115.91%3,853.41%3,305.59%2,835.65%5.48%
20364,786.55%5,579.80%6,504.51%7,582.48%4,106.07%3,522.33%3,021.58%5.59%
20375,100.39%5,945.65%6,931.00%8,079.64%4,375.29%3,753.28%3,219.70%5.68%
20385,434.81%6,335.49%7,385.45%8,609.40%4,662.17%3,999.37%3,430.80%5.75%
20395,791.16%6,750.90%7,869.69%9,173.90%4,967.86%4,261.60%3,655.75%5.81%
20406,170.87%7,193.53%8,385.69%9,775.40%5,293.59%4,541.02%3,895.45%5.86%
20416,575.47%7,665.20%8,935.51%10,416.35%5,640.67%4,838.77%4,150.86%5.91%
20427,006.61%8,167.78%9,521.39%11,099.33%6,010.52%5,156.03%4,423.03%5.95%
20437,466.02%8,703.32%10,145.68%11,827.08%6,404.61%5,494.10%4,713.03%5.99%
20447,955.54%9,273.98%10,810.91%12,602.55%6,824.54%5,854.33%5,022.05%6.02%
20458,477.17%9,882.05%11,519.75%13,428.87%7,272.01%6,238.19%5,351.34%6.05%
20469,032.99%10,529.99%12,275.07%14,309.36%7,748.82%6,647.21%5,702.21%6.07%
20479,625.26%11,220.41%13,079.92%15,247.59%8,256.89%7,083.05%6,076.09%6.09%
204810,256.37%11,956.10%13,937.53%16,247.33%8,798.27%7,547.46%6,474.48%6.12%
204910,928.85%12,740.03%14,851.38%17,312.63%9,375.15%8,042.33%6,898.99%6.13%
205011,645.42%13,575.36%15,825.14%18,447.77%9,989.85%8,569.65%7,351.34%6.15%
205112,408.98%14,465.47%16,862.76%19,657.34%10,644.86%9,131.54%7,833.35%6.17%
205213,222.61%15,413.93%17,968.40%20,946.22%11,342.82%9,730.27%8,346.96%6.18%
205314,089.58%16,424.58%19,146.55%22,319.61%12,086.54%10,368.25%8,894.25%6.20%
205415,013.40%17,501.49%20,401.93%23,783.05%12,879.02%11,048.07%9,477.43%6.21%
205515,997.79%18,649.02%21,739.64%25,342.44%13,723.46%11,772.47%10,098.84%6.22%
205617,046.72%19,871.79%23,165.05%27,004.08%14,623.27%12,544.36%10,760.99%6.23%
Portfolio Draw Down
YearNominal DrawdownReal Drawdown
1970-2.96%-8.08%
1971-0.00%-0.00%
1972-0.00%-0.00%
1973-14.05%-20.93%
1974-35.26%-46.99%
1975-13.79%-33.99%
1976-1.10%-27.78%
1977-0.00%-31.44%
1978-0.00%-27.24%
1979-0.00%-27.74%
1980-0.00%-18.26%
1981-4.38%-28.24%
1982-0.00%-22.33%
1983-0.00%-8.47%
1984-0.00%-8.15%
1985-0.00%-0.00%
1986-0.00%-0.00%
1987-0.00%-0.00%
1988-0.00%-0.00%
1989-0.00%-0.00%
1990-10.45%-15.60%
1991-0.00%-0.00%
1992-0.25%-3.06%
1993-0.00%-0.00%
1994-0.00%-0.29%
1995-0.00%-0.00%
1996-0.00%-0.00%
1997-0.00%-0.00%
1998-0.00%-0.00%
1999-0.00%-0.00%
2000-12.59%-15.45%
2001-25.34%-28.89%
2002-39.23%-43.47%
2003-17.97%-25.09%
2004-4.92%-15.92%
2005-0.00%-10.67%
2006-0.00%-0.00%
2007-0.00%-0.00%
2008-39.83%-39.89%
2009-20.59%-22.76%
2010-8.83%-12.64%
2011-13.53%-19.53%
2012-0.00%-7.37%
2013-0.00%-0.00%
2014-0.00%-0.00%
2015-0.00%-0.09%
2016-0.00%-0.00%
2017-0.00%-0.00%
2018-8.87%-10.58%
2019-0.00%-0.00%
2020-0.00%-0.00%
2021-0.00%-0.00%
2022-18.12%-23.08%
2023-0.26%-9.34%
2024-0.00%-0.00%
2025-0.00%-0.00%
2026-0.00%-0.00%
Portfolio 20 Year Stats
YearAnnualized Real ReturnMWR 20yrP-MWR 20yr
19705.90%5.47%3.73%
19715.45%6.18%4.04%
19725.63%5.52%3.67%
19734.46%4.73%2.75%
19746.51%6.16%4.41%
19758.65%9.61%7.78%
19768.55%8.36%6.74%
19778.65%8.20%6.64%
19789.76%9.25%7.81%
197910.36%9.45%8.14%
198011.54%10.36%9.20%
19819.93%10.09%8.57%
19829.70%12.57%10.59%
19838.02%12.99%10.21%
19848.65%12.28%9.94%
19859.26%13.58%11.27%
19867.99%11.41%8.96%
19877.25%9.32%7.02%
19887.16%9.37%7.02%
19893.73%8.74%4.53%
19904.14%7.72%4.29%
19915.68%9.56%6.39%
19924.27%8.46%4.79%
19935.16%9.17%5.82%
19945.50%8.35%5.48%
19955.77%8.86%5.97%
19964.70%7.69%4.63%
19974.50%7.24%4.24%
19984.72%6.50%3.91%
19993.26%5.72%2.71%
20003.32%4.78%2.29%
20014.94%5.79%3.58%
20026.41%7.13%5.08%
20036.24%9.45%6.63%
20045.62%7.64%5.08%
20055.65%7.17%4.78%
20066.29%7.09%5.00%
20075.96%6.38%4.37%
Portfolio 30 Year Stats
YearAnnualized Real ReturnSWR 30yrP-SWR 30yr
19707.33%4.78%4.21%
19717.03%5.43%4.72%
19725.87%4.88%4.00%
19734.39%4.20%3.05%
19746.20%5.48%4.58%
19758.05%8.57%7.73%
19767.47%7.46%6.60%
19777.72%7.30%6.51%
19788.09%8.22%7.43%
19796.06%8.37%6.94%
19806.97%9.06%7.86%
19816.97%8.69%7.54%
19827.15%10.70%9.35%
19837.37%10.91%9.62%
19847.56%10.24%9.09%
19857.72%11.23%10.02%
19866.67%9.30%7.96%
19875.87%7.51%6.15%
19886.31%7.49%6.29%
19895.41%6.92%5.50%
19905.57%6.18%4.97%
19916.68%7.71%6.60%
19926.39%6.84%5.77%
19935.57%7.49%6.02%
19945.61%6.83%5.50%
19956.05%7.25%6.00%
19965.98%6.30%5.19%
19975.93%5.96%4.90%
Portfolio Weights
YearVTSAXVTIAX
197060.00%40.00%
197160.00%40.00%
197260.00%40.00%
197360.00%40.00%
197460.00%40.00%
197560.00%40.00%
197660.00%40.00%
197760.00%40.00%
197860.00%40.00%
197960.00%40.00%
198060.00%40.00%
198160.00%40.00%
198260.00%40.00%
198360.00%40.00%
198460.00%40.00%
198560.00%40.00%
198660.00%40.00%
198760.00%40.00%
198860.00%40.00%
198960.00%40.00%
199060.00%40.00%
199160.00%40.00%
199260.00%40.00%
199360.00%40.00%
199460.00%40.00%
199560.00%40.00%
199660.00%40.00%
199760.00%40.00%
199860.00%40.00%
199960.00%40.00%
200060.00%40.00%
200160.00%40.00%
200260.00%40.00%
200360.00%40.00%
200460.00%40.00%
200560.00%40.00%
200660.00%40.00%
200760.00%40.00%
200860.00%40.00%
200960.00%40.00%
201060.00%40.00%
201160.00%40.00%
201260.00%40.00%
201360.00%40.00%
201460.00%40.00%
201560.00%40.00%
201660.00%40.00%
201760.00%40.00%
201860.00%40.00%
201960.00%40.00%
202060.00%40.00%
202160.00%40.00%
202260.00%40.00%
202360.00%40.00%
202460.00%40.00%
202560.00%40.00%
202660.00%40.00%
Name:P2 (60% VTSAX, 40% VTIAX)
TickerWeight
VTSAX60.00%
VTIAX40.00%
Total Weight100%
100%
Total
VTSAXVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares60.00%
VTIAXVanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares40.00%
MetricNominalReal
Annual Return10.14%6.01%
StdDev16.59%16.57%
Skewness
-0.1175-0.1084
Kurtosis
0.56700.3298
Sharpe Ratio0.4236
Estimated Return6.56%
Max Draw Down-39.83%-46.99%
+1StdDev
+2StdDev
+3StdDev
-1StdDev
-2StdDev
-3StdDev
Estimated Mean
Diff to Mean
Real Cumulative Growth
VTSAX
VTIAX
Nominal
Real
Rolling 20 year real return
Max Withdrawal Rate 20
Permanent Max Withdrawal Rate 20
Rolling 30 year real return
Max Withdrawal Rate 30
Permanent Max Withdrawal Rate 30
Data Sources