| Year | Real Cumulative Growth | Est. Return (SD 0) | Est. Return (+1σ) | Est. Return (+2σ) | Est. Return (+3σ) | Est. Return (−1σ) | Est. Return (−2σ) | Est. Return (−3σ) | Diff. to Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 100.32% | 210.52% | 261.19% | 324.04% | 402.03% | 169.69% | 136.77% | 110.24% | 109.85% |
| 1971 | 112.81% | 214.40% | 266.00% | 330.01% | 409.43% | 172.81% | 139.29% | 112.27% | 90.06% |
| 1972 | 161.98% | 218.35% | 270.90% | 336.09% | 416.98% | 176.00% | 141.86% | 114.34% | 34.80% |
| 1973 | 258.13% | 222.37% | 275.89% | 342.29% | 424.66% | 179.24% | 144.47% | 116.45% | -13.85% |
| 1974 | 383.25% | 226.47% | 280.97% | 348.59% | 432.48% | 182.54% | 147.13% | 118.59% | -40.91% |
| 1975 | 267.17% | 230.64% | 286.15% | 355.02% | 440.45% | 185.91% | 149.84% | 120.78% | -13.67% |
| 1976 | 243.80% | 234.89% | 291.42% | 361.56% | 448.57% | 189.33% | 152.61% | 123.00% | -3.65% |
| 1977 | 280.66% | 239.22% | 296.79% | 368.22% | 456.83% | 192.82% | 155.42% | 125.27% | -14.76% |
| 1978 | 348.37% | 243.63% | 302.26% | 375.00% | 465.25% | 196.37% | 158.28% | 127.58% | -30.07% |
| 1979 | 716.97% | 248.12% | 307.83% | 381.91% | 473.82% | 199.99% | 161.20% | 129.93% | -65.39% |
| 1980 | 715.25% | 252.69% | 313.50% | 388.95% | 482.55% | 203.67% | 164.17% | 132.32% | -64.67% |
| 1981 | 443.91% | 257.35% | 319.28% | 396.11% | 491.44% | 207.43% | 167.19% | 134.76% | -42.03% |
| 1982 | 477.77% | 262.09% | 325.16% | 403.41% | 500.50% | 211.25% | 170.27% | 137.24% | -45.14% |
| 1983 | 390.86% | 266.92% | 331.15% | 410.85% | 509.72% | 215.14% | 173.41% | 139.77% | -31.71% |
| 1984 | 303.63% | 271.83% | 337.25% | 418.42% | 519.11% | 219.11% | 176.60% | 142.35% | -10.47% |
| 1985 | 308.84% | 276.84% | 343.47% | 426.12% | 528.67% | 223.14% | 179.86% | 144.97% | -10.36% |
| 1986 | 364.40% | 281.94% | 349.80% | 433.98% | 538.42% | 227.25% | 183.17% | 147.64% | -22.63% |
| 1987 | 433.42% | 287.14% | 356.24% | 441.97% | 548.34% | 231.44% | 186.55% | 150.36% | -33.75% |
| 1988 | 348.91% | 292.43% | 362.80% | 450.11% | 558.44% | 235.70% | 189.98% | 153.13% | -16.19% |
| 1989 | 325.14% | 297.82% | 369.49% | 458.41% | 568.73% | 240.05% | 193.48% | 155.95% | -8.40% |
| 1990 | 298.02% | 303.30% | 376.30% | 466.85% | 579.21% | 244.47% | 197.05% | 158.83% | 1.77% |
| 1991 | 260.63% | 308.89% | 383.23% | 475.46% | 589.88% | 248.97% | 200.68% | 161.75% | 18.52% |
| 1992 | 237.96% | 314.58% | 390.29% | 484.22% | 600.75% | 253.56% | 204.38% | 164.73% | 32.20% |
| 1993 | 271.20% | 320.38% | 397.48% | 493.14% | 611.81% | 258.23% | 208.14% | 167.77% | 18.14% |
| 1994 | 257.96% | 326.28% | 404.80% | 502.22% | 623.09% | 262.99% | 211.98% | 170.86% | 26.48% |
| 1995 | 253.71% | 332.29% | 412.26% | 511.48% | 634.57% | 267.84% | 215.88% | 174.01% | 30.97% |
| 1996 | 234.07% | 338.42% | 419.86% | 520.90% | 646.26% | 272.77% | 219.86% | 177.21% | 44.58% |
| 1997 | 179.54% | 344.65% | 427.59% | 530.50% | 658.17% | 277.80% | 223.91% | 180.48% | 91.96% |
| 1998 | 175.18% | 351.00% | 435.47% | 540.27% | 670.29% | 282.92% | 228.04% | 183.80% | 100.37% |
| 1999 | 172.19% | 357.47% | 443.50% | 550.23% | 682.64% | 288.13% | 232.24% | 187.19% | 107.60% |
| 2000 | 155.71% | 364.06% | 451.67% | 560.36% | 695.22% | 293.44% | 236.52% | 190.64% | 133.81% |
| 2001 | 155.11% | 370.76% | 459.99% | 570.69% | 708.03% | 298.84% | 240.88% | 194.15% | 139.04% |
| 2002 | 187.42% | 377.59% | 468.46% | 581.20% | 721.07% | 304.35% | 245.31% | 197.73% | 101.47% |
| 2003 | 223.50% | 384.55% | 477.10% | 591.91% | 734.36% | 309.96% | 249.83% | 201.37% | 72.06% |
| 2004 | 226.66% | 391.64% | 485.89% | 602.82% | 747.89% | 315.67% | 254.44% | 205.08% | 72.79% |
| 2005 | 256.14% | 398.85% | 494.84% | 613.93% | 761.67% | 321.48% | 259.12% | 208.86% | 55.72% |
| 2006 | 305.42% | 406.20% | 503.96% | 625.24% | 775.70% | 327.41% | 263.90% | 212.71% | 33.00% |
| 2007 | 382.54% | 413.69% | 513.24% | 636.76% | 790.00% | 333.44% | 268.76% | 216.63% | 8.14% |
| 2008 | 401.72% | 421.31% | 522.70% | 648.49% | 804.55% | 339.58% | 273.71% | 220.62% | 4.88% |
| 2009 | 484.55% | 429.07% | 532.33% | 660.44% | 819.38% | 345.84% | 278.76% | 224.68% | -11.45% |
| 2010 | 618.03% | 436.98% | 542.14% | 672.61% | 834.47% | 352.21% | 283.89% | 228.82% | -29.30% |
| 2011 | 657.71% | 445.03% | 552.13% | 685.00% | 849.85% | 358.70% | 289.12% | 233.04% | -32.34% |
| 2012 | 691.00% | 453.23% | 562.30% | 697.62% | 865.51% | 365.31% | 294.45% | 237.33% | -34.41% |
| 2013 | 488.47% | 461.58% | 572.66% | 710.47% | 881.45% | 372.04% | 299.87% | 241.71% | -5.51% |
| 2014 | 474.85% | 470.08% | 583.21% | 723.56% | 897.69% | 378.90% | 305.40% | 246.16% | -1.00% |
| 2015 | 421.53% | 478.74% | 593.95% | 736.89% | 914.23% | 385.88% | 311.03% | 250.70% | 13.57% |
| 2016 | 447.30% | 487.56% | 604.90% | 750.47% | 931.08% | 392.99% | 316.76% | 255.31% | 9.00% |
| 2017 | 494.61% | 496.55% | 616.04% | 764.30% | 948.23% | 400.23% | 322.59% | 260.02% | 0.39% |
| 2018 | 476.80% | 505.69% | 627.39% | 778.38% | 965.70% | 407.60% | 328.54% | 264.81% | 6.06% |
| 2019 | 549.93% | 515.01% | 638.95% | 792.72% | 983.50% | 415.11% | 334.59% | 269.69% | -6.35% |
| 2020 | 678.36% | 524.50% | 650.73% | 807.33% | 1,001.62% | 422.76% | 340.76% | 274.66% | -22.68% |
| 2021 | 608.39% | 534.16% | 662.72% | 822.20% | 1,020.07% | 430.55% | 347.03% | 279.72% | -12.20% |
| 2022 | 567.93% | 544.01% | 674.93% | 837.35% | 1,038.87% | 438.48% | 353.43% | 284.87% | -4.21% |
| 2023 | 620.08% | 554.03% | 687.36% | 852.78% | 1,058.01% | 446.56% | 359.94% | 290.12% | -10.65% |
| 2024 | 764.47% | 564.24% | 700.03% | 868.49% | 1,077.50% | 454.79% | 366.57% | 295.47% | -26.19% |
| 2025 | 1,220.40% | 574.63% | 712.92% | 884.49% | 1,097.35% | 463.17% | 373.33% | 300.91% | -52.91% |
| 2026 | 1,221.94% | 585.22% | 726.06% | 900.79% | 1,117.57% | 471.70% | 380.20% | 306.45% | -52.11% |
| 2027 | 596.00% | 739.44% | 917.39% | 1,138.16% | 480.39% | 387.21% | 312.10% | -51.22% | |
| 2028 | 606.98% | 753.06% | 934.29% | 1,159.13% | 489.24% | 394.34% | 317.85% | -29.52% | |
| 2029 | 618.17% | 766.93% | 951.50% | 1,180.49% | 498.26% | 401.61% | 323.71% | -20.32% | |
| 2030 | 629.56% | 781.07% | 969.03% | 1,202.24% | 507.44% | 409.01% | 329.67% | -15.28% | |
| 2031 | 641.16% | 795.46% | 986.89% | 1,224.39% | 516.79% | 416.54% | 335.75% | -12.10% | |
| 2032 | 652.97% | 810.11% | 1,005.07% | 1,246.95% | 526.31% | 424.22% | 341.93% | -9.92% | |
| 2033 | 665.00% | 825.04% | 1,023.59% | 1,269.92% | 536.01% | 432.04% | 348.23% | -8.32% | |
| 2034 | 677.25% | 840.24% | 1,042.45% | 1,293.32% | 545.88% | 440.00% | 354.65% | -7.11% | |
| 2035 | 689.73% | 855.72% | 1,061.66% | 1,317.15% | 555.94% | 448.10% | 361.18% | -6.16% | |
| 2036 | 702.44% | 871.49% | 1,081.22% | 1,341.42% | 566.18% | 456.36% | 367.84% | -5.39% | |
| 2037 | 715.38% | 887.54% | 1,101.14% | 1,366.13% | 576.62% | 464.77% | 374.61% | -4.75% | |
| 2038 | 728.56% | 903.90% | 1,121.43% | 1,391.31% | 587.24% | 473.33% | 381.52% | -4.22% | |
| 2039 | 741.99% | 920.55% | 1,142.09% | 1,416.94% | 598.06% | 482.05% | 388.54% | -3.76% | |
| 2040 | 755.66% | 937.51% | 1,163.13% | 1,443.05% | 609.08% | 490.93% | 395.70% | -3.37% | |
| 2041 | 769.58% | 954.79% | 1,184.56% | 1,469.63% | 620.30% | 499.98% | 402.99% | -3.04% | |
| 2042 | 783.76% | 972.38% | 1,206.39% | 1,496.71% | 631.73% | 509.19% | 410.42% | -2.74% | |
| 2043 | 798.20% | 990.29% | 1,228.61% | 1,524.29% | 643.37% | 518.57% | 417.98% | -2.47% | |
| 2044 | 812.91% | 1,008.54% | 1,251.25% | 1,552.37% | 655.22% | 528.13% | 425.68% | -2.24% | |
| 2045 | 827.88% | 1,027.12% | 1,274.31% | 1,580.98% | 667.30% | 537.86% | 433.53% | -2.03% | |
| 2046 | 843.14% | 1,046.05% | 1,297.78% | 1,610.10% | 679.59% | 547.77% | 441.51% | -1.84% | |
| 2047 | 858.67% | 1,065.32% | 1,321.70% | 1,639.77% | 692.11% | 557.86% | 449.65% | -1.67% | |
| 2048 | 874.49% | 1,084.95% | 1,346.05% | 1,669.98% | 704.86% | 568.14% | 457.93% | -1.51% | |
| 2049 | 890.61% | 1,104.94% | 1,370.85% | 1,700.75% | 717.85% | 578.61% | 466.37% | -1.37% | |
| 2050 | 907.02% | 1,125.30% | 1,396.11% | 1,732.09% | 731.08% | 589.27% | 474.96% | -1.23% | |
| 2051 | 923.73% | 1,146.03% | 1,421.83% | 1,764.00% | 744.55% | 600.12% | 483.71% | -1.11% | |
| 2052 | 940.75% | 1,167.14% | 1,448.03% | 1,796.50% | 758.26% | 611.18% | 492.63% | -1.00% | |
| 2053 | 958.08% | 1,188.65% | 1,474.70% | 1,829.60% | 772.24% | 622.44% | 501.70% | -0.90% | |
| 2054 | 975.73% | 1,210.55% | 1,501.88% | 1,863.31% | 786.46% | 633.91% | 510.95% | -0.80% | |
| 2055 | 993.71% | 1,232.85% | 1,529.55% | 1,897.64% | 800.95% | 645.59% | 520.36% | -0.71% | |
| 2056 | 1,012.02% | 1,255.57% | 1,557.73% | 1,932.61% | 815.71% | 657.48% | 529.95% | -0.63% |
| Year | Nominal Drawdown | Real Drawdown |
|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1971 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1972 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1973 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1974 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1975 | -25.45% | -30.29% |
| 1976 | -28.66% | -36.38% |
| 1977 | -12.38% | -26.77% |
| 1978 | -0.00% | -9.10% |
| 1979 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1980 | -0.00% | -0.24% |
| 1981 | -32.40% | -38.09% |
| 1982 | -24.46% | -33.36% |
| 1983 | -35.86% | -45.48% |
| 1984 | -48.20% | -57.65% |
| 1985 | -45.31% | -56.92% |
| 1986 | -34.76% | -49.17% |
| 1987 | -18.97% | -39.55% |
| 1988 | -31.89% | -51.34% |
| 1989 | -33.58% | -54.65% |
| 1990 | -35.40% | -58.43% |
| 1991 | -41.77% | -63.65% |
| 1992 | -45.30% | -66.81% |
| 1993 | -35.94% | -62.17% |
| 1994 | -37.44% | -64.02% |
| 1995 | -36.91% | -64.61% |
| 1996 | -39.86% | -67.35% |
| 1997 | -53.09% | -74.96% |
| 1998 | -53.49% | -75.57% |
| 1999 | -53.06% | -75.98% |
| 2000 | -56.11% | -78.28% |
| 2001 | -55.60% | -78.37% |
| 2002 | -45.08% | -73.86% |
| 2003 | -33.27% | -68.83% |
| 2004 | -30.12% | -68.39% |
| 2005 | -18.34% | -64.28% |
| 2006 | -0.15% | -57.40% |
| 2007 | -0.00% | -46.65% |
| 2008 | -0.00% | -43.97% |
| 2009 | -0.00% | -32.42% |
| 2010 | -0.00% | -13.80% |
| 2011 | -0.00% | -8.27% |
| 2012 | -0.00% | -3.62% |
| 2013 | -28.25% | -31.87% |
| 2014 | -29.72% | -33.77% |
| 2015 | -37.16% | -41.21% |
| 2016 | -31.93% | -37.61% |
| 2017 | -23.15% | -31.01% |
| 2018 | -24.50% | -33.50% |
| 2019 | -10.92% | -23.30% |
| 2020 | -0.00% | -5.39% |
| 2021 | -4.00% | -15.14% |
| 2022 | -4.60% | -20.79% |
| 2023 | -0.00% | -13.51% |
| 2024 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2025 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2026 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| Year | Annualized Real Return | MWR 20yr | P-MWR 20yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 6.07% | 12.51% | 8.66% |
| 1971 | 5.59% | 13.66% | 9.06% |
| 1972 | 4.28% | 13.36% | 7.57% |
| 1973 | 1.94% | 10.06% | 3.21% |
| 1974 | 0.25% | 6.52% | 0.31% |
| 1975 | -1.96% | 4.41% | -2.14% |
| 1976 | -0.26% | 6.19% | -0.33% |
| 1977 | -0.20% | 6.76% | -0.28% |
| 1978 | -2.21% | 5.86% | -3.30% |
| 1979 | -3.38% | 4.57% | -4.52% |
| 1980 | -6.88% | 2.12% | -6.72% |
| 1981 | -7.34% | 1.99% | -7.17% |
| 1982 | -5.12% | 3.00% | -5.58% |
| 1983 | -4.57% | 2.64% | -4.09% |
| 1984 | -2.76% | 3.10% | -2.32% |
| 1985 | -1.45% | 3.90% | -1.32% |
| 1986 | -0.93% | 3.78% | -0.78% |
| 1987 | -0.88% | 3.18% | -0.61% |
| 1988 | -0.62% | 2.66% | -0.35% |
| 1989 | 0.71% | 3.29% | 0.43% |
| 1990 | 2.01% | 3.55% | 1.17% |
| 1991 | 3.71% | 3.92% | 2.03% |
| 1992 | 4.74% | 4.57% | 2.76% |
| 1993 | 5.47% | 5.15% | 3.37% |
| 1994 | 2.99% | 4.67% | 2.08% |
| 1995 | 3.10% | 5.02% | 2.29% |
| 1996 | 2.57% | 5.22% | 2.08% |
| 1997 | 3.29% | 5.78% | 2.76% |
| 1998 | 5.20% | 7.75% | 4.94% |
| 1999 | 5.13% | 8.36% | 5.29% |
| 2000 | 5.98% | 8.97% | 6.16% |
| 2001 | 7.64% | 10.58% | 8.15% |
| 2002 | 7.07% | 11.56% | 8.61% |
| 2003 | 5.70% | 10.47% | 7.01% |
| 2004 | 5.23% | 9.44% | 6.04% |
| 2005 | 6.27% | 9.91% | 6.97% |
| 2006 | 8.12% | 9.42% | 7.45% |
| 2007 | 7.18% | 8.54% | 6.40% |
| Year | Annualized Real Return | SWR 30yr | P-SWR 30yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 1.83% | 8.23% | 3.45% |
| 1971 | 1.48% | 8.50% | 3.02% |
| 1972 | 1.07% | 7.80% | 2.13% |
| 1973 | 0.49% | 5.55% | 0.75% |
| 1974 | -0.48% | 3.51% | -0.54% |
| 1975 | -1.74% | 2.35% | -1.62% |
| 1976 | -0.14% | 3.32% | -0.14% |
| 1977 | 0.75% | 3.63% | 0.73% |
| 1978 | 1.04% | 3.18% | 0.85% |
| 1979 | 0.48% | 2.58% | 0.34% |
| 1980 | -1.30% | 1.26% | -0.60% |
| 1981 | -0.49% | 1.25% | -0.20% |
| 1982 | 1.32% | 2.02% | 0.66% |
| 1983 | 1.24% | 1.89% | 0.58% |
| 1984 | 0.75% | 2.32% | 0.46% |
| 1985 | 1.50% | 3.00% | 1.08% |
| 1986 | 1.04% | 2.98% | 0.80% |
| 1987 | 0.69% | 2.55% | 0.47% |
| 1988 | 0.44% | 2.15% | 0.27% |
| 1989 | 1.05% | 2.68% | 0.72% |
| 1990 | 1.77% | 2.90% | 1.18% |
| 1991 | 2.78% | 3.20% | 1.79% |
| 1992 | 2.87% | 3.72% | 2.13% |
| 1993 | 2.94% | 4.16% | 2.42% |
| 1994 | 2.80% | 3.74% | 2.11% |
| 1995 | 3.69% | 4.02% | 2.66% |
| 1996 | 5.38% | 4.20% | 3.33% |
| 1997 | 5.66% | 4.71% | 3.81% |
| Year | IAU |
|---|---|
| 1970 | 100.00% |
| 1971 | 100.00% |
| 1972 | 100.00% |
| 1973 | 100.00% |
| 1974 | 100.00% |
| 1975 | 100.00% |
| 1976 | 100.00% |
| 1977 | 100.00% |
| 1978 | 100.00% |
| 1979 | 100.00% |
| 1980 | 100.00% |
| 1981 | 100.00% |
| 1982 | 100.00% |
| 1983 | 100.00% |
| 1984 | 100.00% |
| 1985 | 100.00% |
| 1986 | 100.00% |
| 1987 | 100.00% |
| 1988 | 100.00% |
| 1989 | 100.00% |
| 1990 | 100.00% |
| 1991 | 100.00% |
| 1992 | 100.00% |
| 1993 | 100.00% |
| 1994 | 100.00% |
| 1995 | 100.00% |
| 1996 | 100.00% |
| 1997 | 100.00% |
| 1998 | 100.00% |
| 1999 | 100.00% |
| 2000 | 100.00% |
| 2001 | 100.00% |
| 2002 | 100.00% |
| 2003 | 100.00% |
| 2004 | 100.00% |
| 2005 | 100.00% |
| 2006 | 100.00% |
| 2007 | 100.00% |
| 2008 | 100.00% |
| 2009 | 100.00% |
| 2010 | 100.00% |
| 2011 | 100.00% |
| 2012 | 100.00% |
| 2013 | 100.00% |
| 2014 | 100.00% |
| 2015 | 100.00% |
| 2016 | 100.00% |
| 2017 | 100.00% |
| 2018 | 100.00% |
| 2019 | 100.00% |
| 2020 | 100.00% |
| 2021 | 100.00% |
| 2022 | 100.00% |
| 2023 | 100.00% |
| 2024 | 100.00% |
| 2025 | 100.00% |
| 2026 | 100.00% |
Name:Gold
| Ticker | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| IAU | 100.00% | |
| Total Weight | 100.00% |
| Metric | Nominal | Real |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Return | 8.56% | 4.49% |
| StdDev | 27.06% | 24.07% |
Skewness | 0.2597 | 0.1935 |
Kurtosis | 6.7394 | 4.3897 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.2514 | |
| Estimated Return | 1.84% | |
| Max Draw Down | -56.11% | -78.37% |
+1StdDev
+2StdDev
+3StdDev
-1StdDev
-2StdDev
-3StdDev
Estimated Mean
Diff to Mean
Real Cumulative Growth
IAU
Nominal
Real
Rolling 20 year real return
Max Withdrawal Rate 20
Permanent Max Withdrawal Rate 20
Rolling 30 year real return
Max Withdrawal Rate 30
Permanent Max Withdrawal Rate 30