| Year | Real Cumulative Growth | Est. Return (SD 0) | Est. Return (+1σ) | Est. Return (+2σ) | Est. Return (+3σ) | Est. Return (−1σ) | Est. Return (−2σ) | Est. Return (−3σ) | Diff. to Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 92.38% | 76.98% | 90.07% | 105.38% | 123.31% | 65.79% | 56.22% | 48.05% | -16.68% |
| 1971 | 106.42% | 81.36% | 95.20% | 111.39% | 130.34% | 69.54% | 59.43% | 50.79% | -23.54% |
| 1972 | 126.52% | 86.00% | 100.63% | 117.75% | 137.77% | 73.50% | 62.82% | 53.69% | -32.02% |
| 1973 | 99.01% | 90.91% | 106.37% | 124.46% | 145.63% | 77.70% | 66.40% | 56.75% | -8.18% |
| 1974 | 66.22% | 96.09% | 112.44% | 131.56% | 153.94% | 82.13% | 70.19% | 59.99% | 45.11% |
| 1975 | 82.87% | 101.57% | 118.85% | 139.06% | 162.71% | 86.81% | 74.19% | 63.41% | 22.57% |
| 1976 | 90.21% | 107.37% | 125.63% | 146.99% | 171.99% | 91.76% | 78.42% | 67.02% | 19.02% |
| 1977 | 85.81% | 113.49% | 132.79% | 155.38% | 181.80% | 96.99% | 82.89% | 70.85% | 32.26% |
| 1978 | 92.58% | 119.96% | 140.36% | 164.24% | 192.17% | 102.52% | 87.62% | 74.89% | 29.58% |
| 1979 | 91.62% | 126.80% | 148.37% | 173.60% | 203.13% | 108.37% | 92.62% | 79.16% | 38.41% |
| 1980 | 103.48% | 134.03% | 156.83% | 183.50% | 214.71% | 114.55% | 97.90% | 83.67% | 29.53% |
| 1981 | 91.40% | 141.68% | 165.77% | 193.97% | 226.96% | 121.08% | 103.48% | 88.44% | 55.00% |
| 1982 | 97.47% | 149.76% | 175.23% | 205.03% | 239.90% | 127.99% | 109.39% | 93.49% | 53.65% |
| 1983 | 115.19% | 158.30% | 185.22% | 216.72% | 253.58% | 135.29% | 115.62% | 98.82% | 37.42% |
| 1984 | 116.63% | 167.32% | 195.78% | 229.08% | 268.04% | 143.00% | 122.22% | 104.45% | 43.47% |
| 1985 | 158.51% | 176.87% | 206.95% | 242.14% | 283.33% | 151.16% | 129.19% | 110.41% | 11.58% |
| 1986 | 222.77% | 186.95% | 218.75% | 255.95% | 299.48% | 159.78% | 136.55% | 116.71% | -16.08% |
| 1987 | 247.84% | 197.61% | 231.22% | 270.55% | 316.56% | 168.89% | 144.34% | 123.36% | -20.26% |
| 1988 | 292.72% | 208.88% | 244.41% | 285.98% | 334.62% | 178.52% | 152.57% | 130.40% | -28.64% |
| 1989 | 326.17% | 220.80% | 258.35% | 302.29% | 353.70% | 188.70% | 161.27% | 137.83% | -32.31% |
| 1990 | 255.35% | 233.39% | 273.08% | 319.53% | 373.87% | 199.46% | 170.47% | 145.69% | -8.60% |
| 1991 | 293.28% | 246.70% | 288.65% | 337.75% | 395.19% | 210.84% | 180.19% | 154.00% | -15.88% |
| 1992 | 270.40% | 260.77% | 305.12% | 357.01% | 417.73% | 222.86% | 190.47% | 162.78% | -3.56% |
| 1993 | 322.42% | 275.64% | 322.52% | 377.37% | 441.55% | 235.57% | 201.33% | 172.07% | -14.51% |
| 1994 | 329.93% | 291.36% | 340.91% | 398.89% | 466.73% | 249.01% | 212.81% | 181.88% | -11.69% |
| 1995 | 388.39% | 307.97% | 360.35% | 421.64% | 493.35% | 263.21% | 224.95% | 192.25% | -20.71% |
| 1996 | 426.40% | 325.53% | 380.90% | 445.68% | 521.48% | 278.22% | 237.78% | 203.21% | -23.65% |
| 1997 | 484.89% | 344.10% | 402.62% | 471.10% | 551.22% | 294.08% | 251.34% | 214.80% | -29.04% |
| 1998 | 592.54% | 363.72% | 425.58% | 497.96% | 582.65% | 310.85% | 265.67% | 227.05% | -38.62% |
| 1999 | 719.73% | 384.46% | 449.85% | 526.36% | 615.88% | 328.58% | 280.82% | 240.00% | -46.58% |
| 2000 | 603.20% | 406.39% | 475.51% | 556.38% | 651.00% | 347.32% | 296.83% | 253.69% | -32.63% |
| 2001 | 493.37% | 429.56% | 502.62% | 588.11% | 688.13% | 367.12% | 313.76% | 268.16% | -12.93% |
| 2002 | 385.81% | 454.06% | 531.29% | 621.64% | 727.37% | 388.06% | 331.65% | 283.45% | 17.69% |
| 2003 | 504.04% | 479.96% | 561.58% | 657.10% | 768.85% | 410.19% | 350.57% | 299.61% | -4.78% |
| 2004 | 559.73% | 507.33% | 593.61% | 694.57% | 812.70% | 433.58% | 370.56% | 316.70% | -9.36% |
| 2005 | 592.53% | 536.26% | 627.46% | 734.18% | 859.04% | 458.31% | 391.69% | 334.76% | -9.50% |
| 2006 | 693.71% | 566.84% | 663.24% | 776.05% | 908.03% | 484.45% | 414.03% | 353.85% | -18.29% |
| 2007 | 726.64% | 599.16% | 701.07% | 820.30% | 959.82% | 512.07% | 437.64% | 374.03% | -17.54% |
| 2008 | 431.02% | 633.33% | 741.05% | 867.08% | 1,014.55% | 541.28% | 462.60% | 395.36% | 46.94% |
| 2009 | 556.60% | 669.45% | 783.31% | 916.53% | 1,072.41% | 572.14% | 488.98% | 417.90% | 20.27% |
| 2010 | 620.11% | 707.63% | 827.98% | 968.80% | 1,133.57% | 604.77% | 516.87% | 441.74% | 14.11% |
| 2011 | 557.11% | 747.98% | 875.20% | 1,024.05% | 1,198.21% | 639.26% | 546.34% | 466.93% | 34.26% |
| 2012 | 641.33% | 790.64% | 925.11% | 1,082.44% | 1,266.54% | 675.72% | 577.50% | 493.56% | 23.28% |
| 2013 | 776.86% | 835.73% | 977.86% | 1,144.17% | 1,338.77% | 714.25% | 610.43% | 521.70% | 7.58% |
| 2014 | 799.29% | 883.39% | 1,033.63% | 1,209.42% | 1,415.12% | 754.98% | 645.24% | 551.45% | 10.52% |
| 2015 | 778.74% | 933.76% | 1,092.57% | 1,278.39% | 1,495.82% | 798.04% | 682.04% | 582.90% | 19.91% |
| 2016 | 827.87% | 987.01% | 1,154.88% | 1,351.30% | 1,581.12% | 843.55% | 720.93% | 616.14% | 19.22% |
| 2017 | 1,009.32% | 1,043.30% | 1,220.74% | 1,428.36% | 1,671.29% | 891.65% | 762.05% | 651.28% | 3.37% |
| 2018 | 903.65% | 1,102.80% | 1,290.36% | 1,509.82% | 1,766.60% | 942.50% | 805.50% | 688.42% | 22.04% |
| 2019 | 1,120.35% | 1,165.69% | 1,363.94% | 1,595.92% | 1,867.34% | 996.25% | 851.44% | 727.68% | 4.05% |
| 2020 | 1,289.80% | 1,232.16% | 1,441.73% | 1,686.93% | 1,973.83% | 1,053.06% | 900.00% | 769.18% | -4.47% |
| 2021 | 1,424.15% | 1,302.43% | 1,523.94% | 1,783.13% | 2,086.40% | 1,113.12% | 951.32% | 813.04% | -8.55% |
| 2022 | 1,096.91% | 1,376.71% | 1,610.85% | 1,884.82% | 2,205.38% | 1,176.60% | 1,005.57% | 859.41% | 25.51% |
| 2023 | 1,293.47% | 1,455.22% | 1,702.71% | 1,992.30% | 2,331.15% | 1,243.70% | 1,062.92% | 908.42% | 12.50% |
| 2024 | 1,463.69% | 1,538.21% | 1,799.82% | 2,105.92% | 2,464.09% | 1,314.62% | 1,123.53% | 960.22% | 5.09% |
| 2025 | 1,744.88% | 1,625.93% | 1,902.46% | 2,226.02% | 2,604.61% | 1,389.59% | 1,187.61% | 1,014.98% | -6.82% |
| 2026 | 1,939.70% | 1,718.65% | 2,010.95% | 2,352.96% | 2,753.14% | 1,468.84% | 1,255.33% | 1,072.87% | -11.40% |
| 2027 | 1,816.66% | 2,125.63% | 2,487.15% | 2,910.15% | 1,552.60% | 1,326.92% | 1,134.05% | -6.34% | |
| 2028 | 1,920.26% | 2,246.85% | 2,628.98% | 3,076.11% | 1,641.14% | 1,402.59% | 1,198.72% | -0.50% | |
| 2029 | 2,029.77% | 2,374.98% | 2,778.91% | 3,251.53% | 1,734.73% | 1,482.58% | 1,267.08% | 1.52% | |
| 2030 | 2,145.52% | 2,510.42% | 2,937.38% | 3,436.96% | 1,833.66% | 1,567.13% | 1,339.34% | 2.55% | |
| 2031 | 2,267.87% | 2,653.58% | 3,104.89% | 3,632.96% | 1,938.23% | 1,656.50% | 1,415.72% | 3.18% | |
| 2032 | 2,397.21% | 2,804.91% | 3,281.96% | 3,840.14% | 2,048.76% | 1,750.96% | 1,496.45% | 3.59% | |
| 2033 | 2,533.91% | 2,964.87% | 3,469.12% | 4,059.13% | 2,165.60% | 1,850.82% | 1,581.79% | 3.89% | |
| 2034 | 2,678.42% | 3,133.95% | 3,666.96% | 4,290.62% | 2,289.10% | 1,956.37% | 1,672.00% | 4.12% | |
| 2035 | 2,831.16% | 3,312.67% | 3,876.08% | 4,535.30% | 2,419.64% | 2,067.93% | 1,767.35% | 4.29% | |
| 2036 | 2,992.61% | 3,501.58% | 4,097.12% | 4,793.94% | 2,557.62% | 2,185.86% | 1,868.14% | 4.43% | |
| 2037 | 3,163.28% | 3,701.27% | 4,330.77% | 5,067.33% | 2,703.48% | 2,310.52% | 1,974.67% | 4.55% | |
| 2038 | 3,343.67% | 3,912.35% | 4,577.74% | 5,356.31% | 2,857.65% | 2,442.28% | 2,087.28% | 4.64% | |
| 2039 | 3,534.35% | 4,135.46% | 4,838.80% | 5,661.76% | 3,020.62% | 2,581.56% | 2,206.32% | 4.72% | |
| 2040 | 3,735.91% | 4,371.30% | 5,114.75% | 5,984.64% | 3,192.88% | 2,728.78% | 2,332.14% | 4.79% | |
| 2041 | 3,948.96% | 4,620.58% | 5,406.43% | 6,325.93% | 3,374.96% | 2,884.39% | 2,465.13% | 4.85% | |
| 2042 | 4,174.16% | 4,884.08% | 5,714.74% | 6,686.68% | 3,567.43% | 3,048.88% | 2,605.72% | 4.91% | |
| 2043 | 4,412.20% | 5,162.61% | 6,040.64% | 7,068.01% | 3,770.87% | 3,222.76% | 2,754.31% | 4.95% | |
| 2044 | 4,663.82% | 5,457.02% | 6,385.13% | 7,471.08% | 3,985.91% | 3,406.54% | 2,911.39% | 4.99% | |
| 2045 | 4,929.79% | 5,768.22% | 6,749.26% | 7,897.14% | 4,213.22% | 3,600.81% | 3,077.42% | 5.03% | |
| 2046 | 5,210.92% | 6,097.17% | 7,134.15% | 8,347.50% | 4,453.49% | 3,806.15% | 3,252.91% | 5.07% | |
| 2047 | 5,508.09% | 6,444.88% | 7,541.00% | 8,823.54% | 4,707.46% | 4,023.21% | 3,438.42% | 5.10% | |
| 2048 | 5,822.20% | 6,812.41% | 7,971.04% | 9,326.72% | 4,975.92% | 4,252.65% | 3,634.50% | 5.12% | |
| 2049 | 6,154.23% | 7,200.91% | 8,425.61% | 9,858.60% | 5,259.68% | 4,495.16% | 3,841.77% | 5.15% | |
| 2050 | 6,505.19% | 7,611.56% | 8,906.10% | 10,420.82% | 5,559.63% | 4,751.51% | 4,060.86% | 5.17% | |
| 2051 | 6,876.16% | 8,045.63% | 9,414.00% | 11,015.09% | 5,876.68% | 5,022.48% | 4,292.44% | 5.19% | |
| 2052 | 7,268.30% | 8,504.46% | 9,950.86% | 11,643.26% | 6,211.82% | 5,308.90% | 4,537.23% | 5.21% | |
| 2053 | 7,682.79% | 8,989.45% | 10,518.33% | 12,307.24% | 6,566.06% | 5,611.66% | 4,795.98% | 5.23% | |
| 2054 | 8,120.92% | 9,502.09% | 11,118.17% | 13,009.10% | 6,940.51% | 5,931.68% | 5,069.48% | 5.25% | |
| 2055 | 8,584.04% | 10,043.98% | 11,752.21% | 13,750.98% | 7,336.31% | 6,269.95% | 5,358.58% | 5.26% | |
| 2056 | 9,073.57% | 10,616.76% | 12,422.41% | 14,535.16% | 7,754.68% | 6,627.51% | 5,664.17% | 5.28% |
| Year | Nominal Drawdown | Real Drawdown |
|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -2.47% | -7.62% |
| 1971 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1972 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1973 | -14.93% | -21.75% |
| 1974 | -36.08% | -47.66% |
| 1975 | -14.45% | -34.50% |
| 1976 | -2.36% | -28.70% |
| 1977 | -0.89% | -32.18% |
| 1978 | -0.00% | -26.83% |
| 1979 | -0.00% | -27.59% |
| 1980 | -0.00% | -18.21% |
| 1981 | -3.79% | -27.75% |
| 1982 | -0.00% | -22.96% |
| 1983 | -0.00% | -8.95% |
| 1984 | -0.00% | -7.82% |
| 1985 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1986 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1987 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1988 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1989 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1990 | -16.93% | -21.71% |
| 1991 | -1.67% | -10.08% |
| 1992 | -6.71% | -17.10% |
| 1993 | -0.00% | -1.15% |
| 1994 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1995 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1996 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1997 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1998 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1999 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2000 | -13.35% | -16.19% |
| 2001 | -28.03% | -31.45% |
| 2002 | -42.38% | -46.40% |
| 2003 | -23.31% | -29.97% |
| 2004 | -12.06% | -22.23% |
| 2005 | -3.72% | -17.67% |
| 2006 | -0.00% | -3.62% |
| 2007 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2008 | -40.63% | -40.68% |
| 2009 | -21.25% | -23.40% |
| 2010 | -10.94% | -14.66% |
| 2011 | -17.62% | -23.33% |
| 2012 | -3.52% | -11.74% |
| 2013 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2014 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2015 | -1.86% | -2.57% |
| 2016 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2017 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2018 | -8.76% | -10.47% |
| 2019 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2020 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2021 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2022 | -18.01% | -22.98% |
| 2023 | -0.08% | -9.18% |
| 2024 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2025 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2026 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| Year | Annualized Real Return | MWR 20yr | P-MWR 20yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 6.09% | 5.37% | 3.72% |
| 1971 | 5.21% | 6.04% | 3.85% |
| 1972 | 5.20% | 5.45% | 3.47% |
| 1973 | 3.87% | 4.75% | 2.53% |
| 1974 | 6.08% | 6.23% | 4.32% |
| 1975 | 8.36% | 9.73% | 7.78% |
| 1976 | 8.03% | 8.43% | 6.63% |
| 1977 | 8.08% | 8.30% | 6.54% |
| 1978 | 9.04% | 9.33% | 7.68% |
| 1979 | 9.73% | 9.37% | 7.91% |
| 1980 | 10.86% | 10.28% | 8.97% |
| 1981 | 9.21% | 10.00% | 8.28% |
| 1982 | 8.80% | 12.34% | 10.06% |
| 1983 | 7.12% | 12.87% | 9.62% |
| 1984 | 7.66% | 12.05% | 9.29% |
| 1985 | 8.16% | 13.12% | 10.38% |
| 1986 | 6.82% | 10.77% | 7.89% |
| 1987 | 5.84% | 8.32% | 5.65% |
| 1988 | 5.53% | 7.93% | 5.22% |
| 1989 | 1.95% | 7.08% | 2.27% |
| 1990 | 2.71% | 6.50% | 2.69% |
| 1991 | 4.54% | 8.53% | 5.02% |
| 1992 | 3.26% | 7.82% | 3.70% |
| 1993 | 4.41% | 8.81% | 5.10% |
| 1994 | 4.50% | 7.79% | 4.56% |
| 1995 | 4.52% | 7.97% | 4.68% |
| 1996 | 3.54% | 7.11% | 3.56% |
| 1997 | 3.37% | 6.71% | 3.25% |
| 1998 | 3.73% | 6.10% | 3.17% |
| 1999 | 2.13% | 5.16% | 1.77% |
| 2000 | 2.24% | 4.32% | 1.55% |
| 2001 | 3.87% | 5.24% | 2.79% |
| 2002 | 5.44% | 6.59% | 4.30% |
| 2003 | 5.36% | 8.80% | 5.71% |
| 2004 | 4.82% | 7.14% | 4.36% |
| 2005 | 4.92% | 6.73% | 4.15% |
| 2006 | 5.55% | 6.63% | 4.38% |
| 2007 | 5.28% | 5.92% | 3.80% |
| Year | Annualized Real Return | SWR 30yr | P-SWR 30yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 6.80% | 4.65% | 4.00% |
| 1971 | 6.45% | 5.24% | 4.44% |
| 1972 | 5.25% | 4.76% | 3.73% |
| 1973 | 3.79% | 4.16% | 2.80% |
| 1974 | 5.57% | 5.47% | 4.40% |
| 1975 | 7.37% | 8.55% | 7.54% |
| 1976 | 6.78% | 7.39% | 6.36% |
| 1977 | 7.04% | 7.25% | 6.31% |
| 1978 | 7.38% | 8.14% | 7.18% |
| 1979 | 5.26% | 8.13% | 6.38% |
| 1980 | 6.20% | 8.77% | 7.33% |
| 1981 | 6.15% | 8.38% | 6.98% |
| 1982 | 6.21% | 10.20% | 8.53% |
| 1983 | 6.48% | 10.46% | 8.87% |
| 1984 | 6.57% | 9.71% | 8.27% |
| 1985 | 6.63% | 10.45% | 8.93% |
| 1986 | 5.45% | 8.45% | 6.73% |
| 1987 | 4.47% | 6.44% | 4.71% |
| 1988 | 4.79% | 6.08% | 4.58% |
| 1989 | 3.83% | 5.39% | 3.65% |
| 1990 | 4.20% | 5.02% | 3.56% |
| 1991 | 5.55% | 6.65% | 5.34% |
| 1992 | 5.41% | 6.12% | 4.86% |
| 1993 | 4.78% | 6.97% | 5.26% |
| 1994 | 4.74% | 6.17% | 4.63% |
| 1995 | 5.09% | 6.33% | 4.90% |
| 1996 | 5.14% | 5.65% | 4.39% |
| 1997 | 5.18% | 5.38% | 4.20% |
| Year | VT |
|---|---|
| 1970 | 100.00% |
| 1971 | 100.00% |
| 1972 | 100.00% |
| 1973 | 100.00% |
| 1974 | 100.00% |
| 1975 | 100.00% |
| 1976 | 100.00% |
| 1977 | 100.00% |
| 1978 | 100.00% |
| 1979 | 100.00% |
| 1980 | 100.00% |
| 1981 | 100.00% |
| 1982 | 100.00% |
| 1983 | 100.00% |
| 1984 | 100.00% |
| 1985 | 100.00% |
| 1986 | 100.00% |
| 1987 | 100.00% |
| 1988 | 100.00% |
| 1989 | 100.00% |
| 1990 | 100.00% |
| 1991 | 100.00% |
| 1992 | 100.00% |
| 1993 | 100.00% |
| 1994 | 100.00% |
| 1995 | 100.00% |
| 1996 | 100.00% |
| 1997 | 100.00% |
| 1998 | 100.00% |
| 1999 | 100.00% |
| 2000 | 100.00% |
| 2001 | 100.00% |
| 2002 | 100.00% |
| 2003 | 100.00% |
| 2004 | 100.00% |
| 2005 | 100.00% |
| 2006 | 100.00% |
| 2007 | 100.00% |
| 2008 | 100.00% |
| 2009 | 100.00% |
| 2010 | 100.00% |
| 2011 | 100.00% |
| 2012 | 100.00% |
| 2013 | 100.00% |
| 2014 | 100.00% |
| 2015 | 100.00% |
| 2016 | 100.00% |
| 2017 | 100.00% |
| 2018 | 100.00% |
| 2019 | 100.00% |
| 2020 | 100.00% |
| 2021 | 100.00% |
| 2022 | 100.00% |
| 2023 | 100.00% |
| 2024 | 100.00% |
| 2025 | 100.00% |
| 2026 | 100.00% |
Name:VT and Chill
| Ticker | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| VT | 100.00% | |
| Total Weight | 100.00% |
| Metric | Nominal | Real |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Return | 9.45% | 5.34% |
| StdDev | 17.08% | 17.01% |
Skewness | -0.1058 | -0.0964 |
Kurtosis | 0.4904 | 0.3139 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.3760 | |
| Estimated Return | 5.70% | |
| Max Draw Down | -42.38% | -47.66% |