| Year | Real Cumulative Growth | Est. Return (SD 0) | Est. Return (+1σ) | Est. Return (+2σ) | Est. Return (+3σ) | Est. Return (−1σ) | Est. Return (−2σ) | Est. Return (−3σ) | Diff. to Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 92.38% | 77.05% | 90.15% | 105.47% | 123.40% | 65.86% | 56.29% | 48.11% | -16.60% |
| 1971 | 106.42% | 81.44% | 95.28% | 111.48% | 130.43% | 69.61% | 59.50% | 50.85% | -23.47% |
| 1972 | 126.52% | 86.08% | 100.71% | 117.83% | 137.86% | 73.57% | 62.88% | 53.75% | -31.96% |
| 1973 | 99.01% | 90.98% | 106.45% | 124.55% | 145.72% | 77.77% | 66.47% | 56.81% | -8.10% |
| 1974 | 66.22% | 96.17% | 112.52% | 131.64% | 154.02% | 82.20% | 70.25% | 60.05% | 45.22% |
| 1975 | 82.87% | 101.65% | 118.93% | 139.14% | 162.79% | 86.88% | 74.26% | 63.47% | 22.65% |
| 1976 | 90.21% | 107.44% | 125.70% | 147.07% | 172.07% | 91.83% | 78.49% | 67.08% | 19.10% |
| 1977 | 85.81% | 113.56% | 132.86% | 155.45% | 181.87% | 97.06% | 82.96% | 70.91% | 32.34% |
| 1978 | 92.58% | 120.03% | 140.43% | 164.30% | 192.23% | 102.59% | 87.68% | 74.95% | 29.65% |
| 1979 | 91.62% | 126.87% | 148.43% | 173.66% | 203.18% | 108.43% | 92.68% | 79.22% | 38.48% |
| 1980 | 103.48% | 134.09% | 156.89% | 183.56% | 214.76% | 114.61% | 97.96% | 83.73% | 29.59% |
| 1981 | 91.40% | 141.73% | 165.83% | 194.01% | 226.99% | 121.14% | 103.54% | 88.50% | 55.06% |
| 1982 | 97.47% | 149.81% | 175.27% | 205.07% | 239.92% | 128.04% | 109.44% | 93.54% | 53.70% |
| 1983 | 115.19% | 158.34% | 185.26% | 216.75% | 253.59% | 135.34% | 115.68% | 98.87% | 37.46% |
| 1984 | 116.63% | 167.36% | 195.81% | 229.10% | 268.04% | 143.05% | 122.27% | 104.50% | 43.50% |
| 1985 | 158.51% | 176.90% | 206.97% | 242.15% | 283.31% | 151.20% | 129.23% | 110.46% | 11.60% |
| 1986 | 222.77% | 186.98% | 218.76% | 255.94% | 299.45% | 159.81% | 136.59% | 116.75% | -16.07% |
| 1987 | 247.84% | 197.63% | 231.22% | 270.53% | 316.51% | 168.92% | 144.37% | 123.40% | -20.26% |
| 1988 | 292.72% | 208.89% | 244.39% | 285.94% | 334.54% | 178.54% | 152.60% | 130.43% | -28.64% |
| 1989 | 326.17% | 220.79% | 258.32% | 302.23% | 353.60% | 188.71% | 161.29% | 137.86% | -32.31% |
| 1990 | 255.35% | 233.37% | 273.03% | 319.45% | 373.75% | 199.46% | 170.48% | 145.71% | -8.61% |
| 1991 | 293.28% | 246.66% | 288.59% | 337.64% | 395.04% | 210.83% | 180.20% | 154.02% | -15.90% |
| 1992 | 270.40% | 260.71% | 305.03% | 356.88% | 417.54% | 222.84% | 190.46% | 162.79% | -3.58% |
| 1993 | 322.42% | 275.57% | 322.41% | 377.21% | 441.33% | 235.53% | 201.31% | 172.06% | -14.53% |
| 1994 | 329.93% | 291.27% | 340.78% | 398.70% | 466.47% | 248.95% | 212.78% | 181.87% | -11.72% |
| 1995 | 388.39% | 307.86% | 360.19% | 421.42% | 493.05% | 263.13% | 224.90% | 192.23% | -20.73% |
| 1996 | 426.40% | 325.40% | 380.71% | 445.43% | 521.14% | 278.12% | 237.72% | 203.18% | -23.69% |
| 1997 | 484.89% | 343.94% | 402.40% | 470.80% | 550.83% | 293.97% | 251.26% | 214.75% | -29.07% |
| 1998 | 592.54% | 363.53% | 425.33% | 497.62% | 582.21% | 310.72% | 265.57% | 226.99% | -38.65% |
| 1999 | 719.73% | 384.24% | 449.56% | 525.97% | 615.38% | 328.42% | 280.70% | 239.92% | -46.61% |
| 2000 | 603.20% | 406.13% | 475.17% | 555.94% | 650.44% | 347.13% | 296.69% | 253.59% | -32.67% |
| 2001 | 493.37% | 429.27% | 502.24% | 587.61% | 687.49% | 366.90% | 313.60% | 268.04% | -12.99% |
| 2002 | 385.81% | 453.73% | 530.85% | 621.09% | 726.66% | 387.81% | 331.46% | 283.31% | 17.60% |
| 2003 | 504.04% | 479.58% | 561.10% | 656.47% | 768.06% | 409.90% | 350.35% | 299.45% | -4.85% |
| 2004 | 559.73% | 506.90% | 593.06% | 693.87% | 811.82% | 433.25% | 370.31% | 316.51% | -9.44% |
| 2005 | 592.53% | 535.78% | 626.85% | 733.40% | 858.07% | 457.94% | 391.40% | 334.54% | -9.58% |
| 2006 | 693.71% | 566.30% | 662.56% | 775.18% | 906.95% | 484.02% | 413.70% | 353.60% | -18.37% |
| 2007 | 726.64% | 598.56% | 700.31% | 819.35% | 958.62% | 511.60% | 437.27% | 373.74% | -17.63% |
| 2008 | 431.02% | 632.66% | 740.20% | 866.03% | 1,013.23% | 540.75% | 462.18% | 395.03% | 46.78% |
| 2009 | 556.60% | 668.71% | 782.37% | 915.36% | 1,070.96% | 571.55% | 488.51% | 417.54% | 20.14% |
| 2010 | 620.11% | 706.80% | 826.95% | 967.51% | 1,131.97% | 604.11% | 516.34% | 441.33% | 13.98% |
| 2011 | 557.11% | 747.07% | 874.06% | 1,022.63% | 1,196.46% | 638.53% | 545.76% | 466.47% | 34.10% |
| 2012 | 641.33% | 789.63% | 923.85% | 1,080.89% | 1,264.62% | 674.91% | 576.85% | 493.04% | 23.12% |
| 2013 | 776.86% | 834.62% | 976.49% | 1,142.47% | 1,336.67% | 713.36% | 609.72% | 521.13% | 7.44% |
| 2014 | 799.29% | 882.17% | 1,032.12% | 1,207.56% | 1,412.82% | 754.00% | 644.45% | 550.82% | 10.37% |
| 2015 | 778.74% | 932.42% | 1,090.92% | 1,276.35% | 1,493.31% | 796.95% | 681.17% | 582.20% | 19.73% |
| 2016 | 827.87% | 985.54% | 1,153.07% | 1,349.07% | 1,578.39% | 842.36% | 719.97% | 615.37% | 19.05% |
| 2017 | 1,009.32% | 1,041.69% | 1,218.76% | 1,425.93% | 1,668.31% | 890.35% | 760.99% | 650.43% | 3.21% |
| 2018 | 903.65% | 1,101.04% | 1,288.19% | 1,507.16% | 1,763.35% | 941.07% | 804.35% | 687.49% | 21.84% |
| 2019 | 1,120.35% | 1,163.76% | 1,361.58% | 1,593.03% | 1,863.81% | 994.68% | 850.17% | 726.65% | 3.87% |
| 2020 | 1,289.80% | 1,230.06% | 1,439.15% | 1,683.78% | 1,970.00% | 1,051.35% | 898.61% | 768.05% | -4.63% |
| 2021 | 1,424.15% | 1,300.14% | 1,521.14% | 1,779.71% | 2,082.23% | 1,111.25% | 949.80% | 811.81% | -8.71% |
| 2022 | 1,096.91% | 1,374.21% | 1,607.80% | 1,881.10% | 2,200.85% | 1,174.56% | 1,003.91% | 858.06% | 25.28% |
| 2023 | 1,293.47% | 1,452.50% | 1,699.40% | 1,988.27% | 2,326.24% | 1,241.47% | 1,061.10% | 906.94% | 12.29% |
| 2024 | 1,463.69% | 1,535.25% | 1,796.22% | 2,101.54% | 2,458.77% | 1,312.20% | 1,121.56% | 958.61% | 4.89% |
| 2025 | 1,744.88% | 1,622.72% | 1,898.55% | 2,221.27% | 2,598.84% | 1,386.96% | 1,185.45% | 1,013.22% | -7.00% |
| 2026 | 1,882.95% | 1,715.16% | 2,006.71% | 2,347.81% | 2,746.90% | 1,465.97% | 1,252.99% | 1,070.95% | -8.91% |
| 2027 | 1,812.88% | 2,121.03% | 2,481.57% | 2,903.39% | 1,549.49% | 1,324.37% | 1,131.96% | -3.72% | |
| 2028 | 1,916.16% | 2,241.87% | 2,622.95% | 3,068.80% | 1,637.77% | 1,399.82% | 1,196.45% | 0.88% | |
| 2029 | 2,025.32% | 2,369.59% | 2,772.38% | 3,243.63% | 1,731.07% | 1,479.57% | 1,264.61% | 2.46% | |
| 2030 | 2,140.71% | 2,504.59% | 2,930.32% | 3,428.43% | 1,829.69% | 1,563.86% | 1,336.66% | 3.26% | |
| 2031 | 2,262.66% | 2,647.28% | 3,097.27% | 3,623.75% | 1,933.93% | 1,652.96% | 1,412.81% | 3.74% | |
| 2032 | 2,391.57% | 2,798.09% | 3,273.72% | 3,830.19% | 2,044.11% | 1,747.13% | 1,493.29% | 4.07% | |
| 2033 | 2,527.82% | 2,957.50% | 3,460.23% | 4,048.40% | 2,160.56% | 1,846.66% | 1,578.37% | 4.30% | |
| 2034 | 2,671.83% | 3,126.00% | 3,657.36% | 4,279.04% | 2,283.65% | 1,951.87% | 1,668.29% | 4.47% | |
| 2035 | 2,824.05% | 3,304.09% | 3,865.72% | 4,522.82% | 2,413.75% | 2,063.07% | 1,763.33% | 4.61% | |
| 2036 | 2,984.94% | 3,492.32% | 4,085.95% | 4,780.49% | 2,551.27% | 2,180.60% | 1,863.79% | 4.72% | |
| 2037 | 3,154.99% | 3,691.28% | 4,318.73% | 5,052.84% | 2,696.61% | 2,304.83% | 1,969.97% | 4.80% | |
| 2038 | 3,334.73% | 3,901.58% | 4,564.78% | 5,340.71% | 2,850.24% | 2,436.14% | 2,082.20% | 4.88% | |
| 2039 | 3,524.71% | 4,123.85% | 4,824.83% | 5,644.97% | 3,012.62% | 2,574.93% | 2,200.83% | 4.94% | |
| 2040 | 3,725.52% | 4,358.79% | 5,099.71% | 5,966.57% | 3,184.25% | 2,721.63% | 2,326.21% | 4.99% | |
| 2041 | 3,937.77% | 4,607.12% | 5,390.24% | 6,306.49% | 3,365.66% | 2,876.68% | 2,458.74% | 5.04% | |
| 2042 | 4,162.10% | 4,869.59% | 5,697.33% | 6,665.77% | 3,557.41% | 3,040.57% | 2,598.81% | 5.08% | |
| 2043 | 4,399.22% | 5,147.01% | 6,021.91% | 7,045.53% | 3,760.08% | 3,213.79% | 2,746.87% | 5.12% | |
| 2044 | 4,649.85% | 5,440.24% | 6,364.98% | 7,446.92% | 3,974.29% | 3,396.88% | 2,903.36% | 5.15% | |
| 2045 | 4,914.75% | 5,750.17% | 6,727.60% | 7,871.17% | 4,200.71% | 3,590.40% | 3,068.77% | 5.18% | |
| 2046 | 5,194.75% | 6,077.77% | 7,110.88% | 8,319.60% | 4,440.03% | 3,794.95% | 3,243.60% | 5.20% | |
| 2047 | 5,490.70% | 6,424.02% | 7,515.99% | 8,793.57% | 4,692.98% | 4,011.15% | 3,428.39% | 5.23% | |
| 2048 | 5,803.51% | 6,790.00% | 7,944.18% | 9,294.55% | 4,960.34% | 4,239.67% | 3,623.71% | 5.25% | |
| 2049 | 6,134.14% | 7,176.83% | 8,396.77% | 9,824.07% | 5,242.93% | 4,481.21% | 3,830.15% | 5.27% | |
| 2050 | 6,483.61% | 7,585.70% | 8,875.14% | 10,383.75% | 5,541.63% | 4,736.51% | 4,048.36% | 5.29% | |
| 2051 | 6,852.98% | 8,017.86% | 9,380.76% | 10,975.32% | 5,857.34% | 5,006.35% | 4,279.00% | 5.30% | |
| 2052 | 7,243.40% | 8,474.65% | 9,915.19% | 11,600.59% | 6,191.04% | 5,291.56% | 4,522.77% | 5.32% | |
| 2053 | 7,656.06% | 8,957.46% | 10,480.06% | 12,261.49% | 6,543.74% | 5,593.03% | 4,780.44% | 5.33% | |
| 2054 | 8,092.23% | 9,467.77% | 11,077.12% | 12,960.03% | 6,916.54% | 5,911.67% | 5,052.78% | 5.35% | |
| 2055 | 8,553.25% | 10,007.15% | 11,708.19% | 13,698.37% | 7,310.59% | 6,248.46% | 5,340.65% | 5.36% | |
| 2056 | 9,040.54% | 10,577.27% | 12,375.22% | 14,478.78% | 7,727.07% | 6,604.44% | 5,644.91% | 5.37% |
| Year | Nominal Drawdown | Real Drawdown |
|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -2.47% | -7.62% |
| 1971 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1972 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1973 | -14.93% | -21.75% |
| 1974 | -36.08% | -47.66% |
| 1975 | -14.45% | -34.50% |
| 1976 | -2.36% | -28.70% |
| 1977 | -0.89% | -32.18% |
| 1978 | -0.00% | -26.83% |
| 1979 | -0.00% | -27.59% |
| 1980 | -0.00% | -18.21% |
| 1981 | -3.79% | -27.75% |
| 1982 | -0.00% | -22.96% |
| 1983 | -0.00% | -8.95% |
| 1984 | -0.00% | -7.82% |
| 1985 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1986 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1987 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1988 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1989 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1990 | -16.93% | -21.71% |
| 1991 | -1.67% | -10.08% |
| 1992 | -6.71% | -17.10% |
| 1993 | -0.00% | -1.15% |
| 1994 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1995 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1996 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1997 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1998 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1999 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2000 | -13.35% | -16.19% |
| 2001 | -28.03% | -31.45% |
| 2002 | -42.38% | -46.40% |
| 2003 | -23.31% | -29.97% |
| 2004 | -12.06% | -22.23% |
| 2005 | -3.72% | -17.67% |
| 2006 | -0.00% | -3.62% |
| 2007 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2008 | -40.63% | -40.68% |
| 2009 | -21.25% | -23.40% |
| 2010 | -10.94% | -14.66% |
| 2011 | -17.62% | -23.33% |
| 2012 | -3.52% | -11.74% |
| 2013 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2014 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2015 | -1.86% | -2.57% |
| 2016 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2017 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2018 | -8.76% | -10.47% |
| 2019 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2020 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2021 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2022 | -18.01% | -22.98% |
| 2023 | -0.08% | -9.18% |
| 2024 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2025 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2026 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| Year | Annualized Real Return | MWR 20yr | P-MWR 20yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 6.09% | 5.37% | 3.72% |
| 1971 | 5.21% | 6.04% | 3.85% |
| 1972 | 5.20% | 5.45% | 3.47% |
| 1973 | 3.87% | 4.75% | 2.53% |
| 1974 | 6.08% | 6.23% | 4.32% |
| 1975 | 8.36% | 9.73% | 7.78% |
| 1976 | 8.03% | 8.43% | 6.63% |
| 1977 | 8.08% | 8.30% | 6.54% |
| 1978 | 9.04% | 9.33% | 7.68% |
| 1979 | 9.73% | 9.37% | 7.91% |
| 1980 | 10.86% | 10.28% | 8.97% |
| 1981 | 9.21% | 10.00% | 8.28% |
| 1982 | 8.80% | 12.34% | 10.06% |
| 1983 | 7.12% | 12.87% | 9.62% |
| 1984 | 7.66% | 12.05% | 9.29% |
| 1985 | 8.16% | 13.12% | 10.38% |
| 1986 | 6.82% | 10.77% | 7.89% |
| 1987 | 5.84% | 8.32% | 5.65% |
| 1988 | 5.53% | 7.93% | 5.22% |
| 1989 | 1.95% | 7.08% | 2.27% |
| 1990 | 2.71% | 6.50% | 2.69% |
| 1991 | 4.54% | 8.53% | 5.02% |
| 1992 | 3.26% | 7.82% | 3.70% |
| 1993 | 4.41% | 8.81% | 5.10% |
| 1994 | 4.50% | 7.79% | 4.56% |
| 1995 | 4.52% | 7.97% | 4.68% |
| 1996 | 3.54% | 7.11% | 3.56% |
| 1997 | 3.37% | 6.71% | 3.25% |
| 1998 | 3.73% | 6.10% | 3.17% |
| 1999 | 2.13% | 5.16% | 1.77% |
| 2000 | 2.24% | 4.32% | 1.55% |
| 2001 | 3.87% | 5.24% | 2.79% |
| 2002 | 5.44% | 6.59% | 4.30% |
| 2003 | 5.36% | 8.80% | 5.71% |
| 2004 | 4.82% | 7.14% | 4.36% |
| 2005 | 4.92% | 6.73% | 4.15% |
| 2006 | 5.55% | 6.63% | 4.38% |
| 2007 | 5.12% | 5.92% | 3.74% |
| Year | Annualized Real Return | SWR 30yr | P-SWR 30yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 6.80% | 4.65% | 4.00% |
| 1971 | 6.45% | 5.24% | 4.44% |
| 1972 | 5.25% | 4.76% | 3.73% |
| 1973 | 3.79% | 4.16% | 2.80% |
| 1974 | 5.57% | 5.47% | 4.40% |
| 1975 | 7.37% | 8.55% | 7.54% |
| 1976 | 6.78% | 7.39% | 6.36% |
| 1977 | 7.04% | 7.25% | 6.31% |
| 1978 | 7.38% | 8.14% | 7.18% |
| 1979 | 5.26% | 8.13% | 6.38% |
| 1980 | 6.20% | 8.77% | 7.33% |
| 1981 | 6.15% | 8.38% | 6.98% |
| 1982 | 6.21% | 10.20% | 8.53% |
| 1983 | 6.48% | 10.46% | 8.87% |
| 1984 | 6.57% | 9.71% | 8.27% |
| 1985 | 6.63% | 10.45% | 8.93% |
| 1986 | 5.45% | 8.45% | 6.73% |
| 1987 | 4.47% | 6.44% | 4.71% |
| 1988 | 4.79% | 6.08% | 4.58% |
| 1989 | 3.83% | 5.39% | 3.65% |
| 1990 | 4.20% | 5.02% | 3.56% |
| 1991 | 5.55% | 6.65% | 5.34% |
| 1992 | 5.41% | 6.12% | 4.86% |
| 1993 | 4.78% | 6.97% | 5.26% |
| 1994 | 4.74% | 6.17% | 4.63% |
| 1995 | 5.09% | 6.33% | 4.90% |
| 1996 | 5.14% | 5.65% | 4.39% |
| 1997 | 5.08% | 5.38% | 4.16% |
| Year | VT |
|---|---|
| 1970 | 100.00% |
| 1971 | 100.00% |
| 1972 | 100.00% |
| 1973 | 100.00% |
| 1974 | 100.00% |
| 1975 | 100.00% |
| 1976 | 100.00% |
| 1977 | 100.00% |
| 1978 | 100.00% |
| 1979 | 100.00% |
| 1980 | 100.00% |
| 1981 | 100.00% |
| 1982 | 100.00% |
| 1983 | 100.00% |
| 1984 | 100.00% |
| 1985 | 100.00% |
| 1986 | 100.00% |
| 1987 | 100.00% |
| 1988 | 100.00% |
| 1989 | 100.00% |
| 1990 | 100.00% |
| 1991 | 100.00% |
| 1992 | 100.00% |
| 1993 | 100.00% |
| 1994 | 100.00% |
| 1995 | 100.00% |
| 1996 | 100.00% |
| 1997 | 100.00% |
| 1998 | 100.00% |
| 1999 | 100.00% |
| 2000 | 100.00% |
| 2001 | 100.00% |
| 2002 | 100.00% |
| 2003 | 100.00% |
| 2004 | 100.00% |
| 2005 | 100.00% |
| 2006 | 100.00% |
| 2007 | 100.00% |
| 2008 | 100.00% |
| 2009 | 100.00% |
| 2010 | 100.00% |
| 2011 | 100.00% |
| 2012 | 100.00% |
| 2013 | 100.00% |
| 2014 | 100.00% |
| 2015 | 100.00% |
| 2016 | 100.00% |
| 2017 | 100.00% |
| 2018 | 100.00% |
| 2019 | 100.00% |
| 2020 | 100.00% |
| 2021 | 100.00% |
| 2022 | 100.00% |
| 2023 | 100.00% |
| 2024 | 100.00% |
| 2025 | 100.00% |
| 2026 | 100.00% |
Name:P1: (100% VT)
| Ticker | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| VT | 100.00% | |
| Total Weight | 100.00% |
| Metric | Nominal | Real |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Return | 9.39% | 5.28% |
| StdDev | 17.07% | 17.00% |
Skewness | -0.1046 | -0.0953 |
Kurtosis | 0.4845 | 0.3110 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.3730 | |
| Estimated Return | 5.70% | |
| Max Draw Down | -42.38% | -47.66% |