| Year | Real Cumulative Growth | Est. Return (SD 0) | Est. Return (+1σ) | Est. Return (+2σ) | Est. Return (+3σ) | Est. Return (−1σ) | Est. Return (−2σ) | Est. Return (−3σ) | Diff. to Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 92.38% | 77.01% | 90.11% | 105.42% | 123.35% | 65.82% | 56.26% | 48.08% | -16.64% |
| 1971 | 106.42% | 81.40% | 95.24% | 111.43% | 130.38% | 69.57% | 59.46% | 50.82% | -23.51% |
| 1972 | 126.52% | 86.04% | 100.67% | 117.79% | 137.81% | 73.54% | 62.85% | 53.72% | -31.99% |
| 1973 | 99.01% | 90.95% | 106.41% | 124.50% | 145.67% | 77.73% | 66.44% | 56.78% | -8.14% |
| 1974 | 66.22% | 96.13% | 112.47% | 131.60% | 153.97% | 82.16% | 70.22% | 60.02% | 45.16% |
| 1975 | 82.87% | 101.61% | 118.88% | 139.10% | 162.75% | 86.84% | 74.22% | 63.44% | 22.61% |
| 1976 | 90.21% | 107.40% | 125.66% | 147.03% | 172.02% | 91.79% | 78.46% | 67.06% | 19.06% |
| 1977 | 85.81% | 113.52% | 132.82% | 155.41% | 181.83% | 97.03% | 82.93% | 70.88% | 32.29% |
| 1978 | 92.58% | 119.99% | 140.39% | 164.26% | 192.19% | 102.56% | 87.65% | 74.92% | 29.61% |
| 1979 | 91.62% | 126.83% | 148.40% | 173.63% | 203.15% | 108.40% | 92.65% | 79.19% | 38.44% |
| 1980 | 103.48% | 134.06% | 156.86% | 183.52% | 214.73% | 114.58% | 97.93% | 83.70% | 29.56% |
| 1981 | 91.40% | 141.70% | 165.80% | 193.98% | 226.97% | 121.11% | 103.51% | 88.47% | 55.03% |
| 1982 | 97.47% | 149.78% | 175.25% | 205.04% | 239.90% | 128.02% | 109.41% | 93.52% | 53.67% |
| 1983 | 115.19% | 158.32% | 185.24% | 216.73% | 253.58% | 135.31% | 115.65% | 98.85% | 37.44% |
| 1984 | 116.63% | 167.34% | 195.79% | 229.08% | 268.03% | 143.03% | 122.24% | 104.48% | 43.48% |
| 1985 | 158.51% | 176.88% | 206.95% | 242.14% | 283.31% | 151.18% | 129.21% | 110.44% | 11.59% |
| 1986 | 222.77% | 186.96% | 218.75% | 255.94% | 299.46% | 159.80% | 136.58% | 116.73% | -16.07% |
| 1987 | 247.84% | 197.62% | 231.22% | 270.53% | 316.53% | 168.90% | 144.36% | 123.38% | -20.26% |
| 1988 | 292.72% | 208.89% | 244.40% | 285.95% | 334.57% | 178.53% | 152.59% | 130.42% | -28.64% |
| 1989 | 326.17% | 220.79% | 258.33% | 302.25% | 353.64% | 188.71% | 161.29% | 137.85% | -32.31% |
| 1990 | 255.35% | 233.38% | 273.06% | 319.48% | 373.80% | 199.47% | 170.48% | 145.71% | -8.61% |
| 1991 | 293.28% | 246.68% | 288.62% | 337.69% | 395.10% | 210.83% | 180.20% | 154.01% | -15.89% |
| 1992 | 270.40% | 260.74% | 305.07% | 356.94% | 417.62% | 222.85% | 190.47% | 162.79% | -3.57% |
| 1993 | 322.42% | 275.60% | 322.46% | 377.28% | 441.43% | 235.55% | 201.33% | 172.07% | -14.52% |
| 1994 | 329.93% | 291.31% | 340.84% | 398.79% | 466.59% | 248.98% | 212.80% | 181.88% | -11.70% |
| 1995 | 388.39% | 307.92% | 360.27% | 421.52% | 493.18% | 263.17% | 224.93% | 192.25% | -20.72% |
| 1996 | 426.40% | 325.47% | 380.80% | 445.55% | 521.30% | 278.17% | 237.75% | 203.20% | -23.67% |
| 1997 | 484.89% | 344.02% | 402.51% | 470.94% | 551.01% | 294.03% | 251.30% | 214.79% | -29.05% |
| 1998 | 592.54% | 363.63% | 425.45% | 497.79% | 582.42% | 310.79% | 265.63% | 227.03% | -38.63% |
| 1999 | 719.73% | 384.36% | 449.70% | 526.16% | 615.62% | 328.50% | 280.77% | 239.97% | -46.60% |
| 2000 | 603.20% | 406.26% | 475.34% | 556.15% | 650.71% | 347.23% | 296.77% | 253.65% | -32.65% |
| 2001 | 493.37% | 429.42% | 502.43% | 587.85% | 687.80% | 367.02% | 313.69% | 268.11% | -12.96% |
| 2002 | 385.81% | 453.90% | 531.07% | 621.36% | 727.00% | 387.94% | 331.57% | 283.39% | 17.65% |
| 2003 | 504.04% | 479.77% | 561.34% | 656.78% | 768.44% | 410.05% | 350.47% | 299.54% | -4.81% |
| 2004 | 559.73% | 507.12% | 593.34% | 694.21% | 812.24% | 433.43% | 370.45% | 316.62% | -9.40% |
| 2005 | 592.53% | 536.02% | 627.16% | 733.78% | 858.54% | 458.13% | 391.56% | 334.66% | -9.54% |
| 2006 | 693.71% | 566.58% | 662.90% | 775.61% | 907.47% | 484.25% | 413.88% | 353.74% | -18.33% |
| 2007 | 726.64% | 598.87% | 700.69% | 819.82% | 959.20% | 511.85% | 437.47% | 373.90% | -17.58% |
| 2008 | 431.02% | 633.01% | 740.63% | 866.55% | 1,013.88% | 541.02% | 462.41% | 395.21% | 46.86% |
| 2009 | 556.60% | 669.09% | 782.84% | 915.94% | 1,071.67% | 571.86% | 488.76% | 417.74% | 20.21% |
| 2010 | 620.11% | 707.23% | 827.47% | 968.15% | 1,132.75% | 604.46% | 516.62% | 441.55% | 14.05% |
| 2011 | 557.11% | 747.54% | 874.63% | 1,023.33% | 1,197.32% | 638.91% | 546.07% | 466.72% | 34.18% |
| 2012 | 641.33% | 790.15% | 924.49% | 1,081.66% | 1,265.56% | 675.33% | 577.20% | 493.32% | 23.21% |
| 2013 | 776.86% | 835.19% | 977.18% | 1,143.32% | 1,337.70% | 713.83% | 610.10% | 521.44% | 7.51% |
| 2014 | 799.29% | 882.79% | 1,032.88% | 1,208.49% | 1,413.95% | 754.51% | 644.87% | 551.17% | 10.45% |
| 2015 | 778.74% | 933.11% | 1,091.76% | 1,277.37% | 1,494.55% | 797.52% | 681.63% | 582.58% | 19.82% |
| 2016 | 827.87% | 986.30% | 1,153.99% | 1,350.18% | 1,579.74% | 842.98% | 720.48% | 615.79% | 19.14% |
| 2017 | 1,009.32% | 1,042.52% | 1,219.76% | 1,427.14% | 1,669.78% | 891.03% | 761.55% | 650.89% | 3.29% |
| 2018 | 903.65% | 1,101.94% | 1,289.29% | 1,508.49% | 1,764.96% | 941.82% | 804.96% | 687.99% | 21.94% |
| 2019 | 1,120.35% | 1,164.75% | 1,362.78% | 1,594.47% | 1,865.56% | 995.50% | 850.84% | 727.21% | 3.96% |
| 2020 | 1,289.80% | 1,231.14% | 1,440.46% | 1,685.36% | 1,971.90% | 1,052.24% | 899.34% | 768.66% | -4.55% |
| 2021 | 1,424.15% | 1,301.32% | 1,522.56% | 1,781.42% | 2,084.30% | 1,112.22% | 950.60% | 812.47% | -8.62% |
| 2022 | 1,096.91% | 1,375.49% | 1,609.35% | 1,882.97% | 2,203.10% | 1,175.62% | 1,004.79% | 858.78% | 25.40% |
| 2023 | 1,293.47% | 1,453.90% | 1,701.08% | 1,990.30% | 2,328.68% | 1,242.63% | 1,062.06% | 907.73% | 12.40% |
| 2024 | 1,463.69% | 1,536.77% | 1,798.05% | 2,103.74% | 2,461.41% | 1,313.46% | 1,122.60% | 959.47% | 4.99% |
| 2025 | 1,744.88% | 1,624.37% | 1,900.53% | 2,223.66% | 2,601.71% | 1,388.33% | 1,186.59% | 1,014.16% | -6.91% |
| 2026 | 1,911.92% | 1,716.95% | 2,008.86% | 2,350.40% | 2,750.01% | 1,467.46% | 1,254.22% | 1,071.97% | -10.20% |
| 2027 | 1,814.82% | 2,123.37% | 2,484.38% | 2,906.76% | 1,551.11% | 1,325.71% | 1,133.07% | -5.08% | |
| 2028 | 1,918.27% | 2,244.40% | 2,625.99% | 3,072.45% | 1,639.52% | 1,401.28% | 1,197.66% | 0.17% | |
| 2029 | 2,027.61% | 2,372.33% | 2,775.67% | 3,247.58% | 1,732.97% | 1,481.15% | 1,265.93% | 1.98% | |
| 2030 | 2,143.18% | 2,507.56% | 2,933.88% | 3,432.69% | 1,831.75% | 1,565.58% | 1,338.08% | 2.90% | |
| 2031 | 2,265.34% | 2,650.49% | 3,101.11% | 3,628.35% | 1,936.16% | 1,654.82% | 1,414.35% | 3.45% | |
| 2032 | 2,394.47% | 2,801.56% | 3,277.88% | 3,835.17% | 2,046.52% | 1,749.14% | 1,494.97% | 3.82% | |
| 2033 | 2,530.95% | 2,961.25% | 3,464.71% | 4,053.77% | 2,163.18% | 1,848.84% | 1,580.19% | 4.09% | |
| 2034 | 2,675.21% | 3,130.04% | 3,662.20% | 4,284.84% | 2,286.48% | 1,954.23% | 1,670.26% | 4.29% | |
| 2035 | 2,827.70% | 3,308.46% | 3,870.95% | 4,529.07% | 2,416.81% | 2,065.62% | 1,765.46% | 4.44% | |
| 2036 | 2,988.88% | 3,497.04% | 4,091.59% | 4,787.23% | 2,554.56% | 2,183.36% | 1,866.09% | 4.57% | |
| 2037 | 3,159.25% | 3,696.37% | 4,324.81% | 5,060.10% | 2,700.17% | 2,307.81% | 1,972.46% | 4.67% | |
| 2038 | 3,339.32% | 3,907.06% | 4,571.33% | 5,348.53% | 2,854.08% | 2,439.35% | 2,084.89% | 4.76% | |
| 2039 | 3,529.67% | 4,129.77% | 4,831.89% | 5,653.40% | 3,016.77% | 2,578.40% | 2,203.73% | 4.83% | |
| 2040 | 3,730.86% | 4,365.16% | 5,107.31% | 5,975.64% | 3,188.72% | 2,725.37% | 2,329.34% | 4.89% | |
| 2041 | 3,943.52% | 4,613.98% | 5,398.43% | 6,316.25% | 3,370.48% | 2,880.71% | 2,462.11% | 4.94% | |
| 2042 | 4,168.30% | 4,876.98% | 5,706.14% | 6,676.28% | 3,562.60% | 3,044.91% | 2,602.45% | 4.99% | |
| 2043 | 4,405.89% | 5,154.96% | 6,031.39% | 7,056.82% | 3,765.67% | 3,218.47% | 2,750.79% | 5.03% | |
| 2044 | 4,657.03% | 5,448.80% | 6,375.18% | 7,459.06% | 3,980.31% | 3,401.93% | 2,907.59% | 5.07% | |
| 2045 | 4,922.48% | 5,759.38% | 6,738.57% | 7,884.23% | 4,207.19% | 3,595.84% | 3,073.32% | 5.10% | |
| 2046 | 5,203.06% | 6,087.66% | 7,122.66% | 8,333.63% | 4,447.00% | 3,800.80% | 3,248.50% | 5.13% | |
| 2047 | 5,499.63% | 6,434.66% | 7,528.66% | 8,808.65% | 4,700.48% | 4,017.44% | 3,433.67% | 5.16% | |
| 2048 | 5,813.11% | 6,801.43% | 7,957.79% | 9,310.74% | 4,968.40% | 4,246.44% | 3,629.38% | 5.18% | |
| 2049 | 6,144.46% | 7,189.12% | 8,411.38% | 9,841.46% | 5,251.60% | 4,488.49% | 3,836.26% | 5.21% | |
| 2050 | 6,494.69% | 7,598.90% | 8,890.83% | 10,402.42% | 5,550.94% | 4,744.33% | 4,054.93% | 5.23% | |
| 2051 | 6,864.89% | 8,032.03% | 9,397.61% | 10,995.36% | 5,867.35% | 5,014.76% | 4,286.06% | 5.25% | |
| 2052 | 7,256.19% | 8,489.86% | 9,933.27% | 11,622.09% | 6,201.79% | 5,300.60% | 4,530.36% | 5.26% | |
| 2053 | 7,669.79% | 8,973.78% | 10,499.47% | 12,284.55% | 6,555.29% | 5,602.73% | 4,788.59% | 5.28% | |
| 2054 | 8,106.97% | 9,485.29% | 11,097.94% | 12,984.77% | 6,928.94% | 5,922.09% | 5,061.54% | 5.29% | |
| 2055 | 8,569.07% | 10,025.95% | 11,730.52% | 13,724.90% | 7,323.89% | 6,259.65% | 5,350.05% | 5.31% | |
| 2056 | 9,057.51% | 10,597.43% | 12,399.16% | 14,507.22% | 7,741.35% | 6,616.45% | 5,655.00% | 5.32% |
| Year | Nominal Drawdown | Real Drawdown |
|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -2.47% | -7.62% |
| 1971 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1972 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1973 | -14.93% | -21.75% |
| 1974 | -36.08% | -47.66% |
| 1975 | -14.45% | -34.50% |
| 1976 | -2.36% | -28.70% |
| 1977 | -0.89% | -32.18% |
| 1978 | -0.00% | -26.83% |
| 1979 | -0.00% | -27.59% |
| 1980 | -0.00% | -18.21% |
| 1981 | -3.79% | -27.75% |
| 1982 | -0.00% | -22.96% |
| 1983 | -0.00% | -8.95% |
| 1984 | -0.00% | -7.82% |
| 1985 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1986 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1987 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1988 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1989 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1990 | -16.93% | -21.71% |
| 1991 | -1.67% | -10.08% |
| 1992 | -6.71% | -17.10% |
| 1993 | -0.00% | -1.15% |
| 1994 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1995 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1996 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1997 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1998 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 1999 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2000 | -13.35% | -16.19% |
| 2001 | -28.03% | -31.45% |
| 2002 | -42.38% | -46.40% |
| 2003 | -23.31% | -29.97% |
| 2004 | -12.06% | -22.23% |
| 2005 | -3.72% | -17.67% |
| 2006 | -0.00% | -3.62% |
| 2007 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2008 | -40.63% | -40.68% |
| 2009 | -21.25% | -23.40% |
| 2010 | -10.94% | -14.66% |
| 2011 | -17.62% | -23.33% |
| 2012 | -3.52% | -11.74% |
| 2013 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2014 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2015 | -1.86% | -2.57% |
| 2016 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2017 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2018 | -8.76% | -10.47% |
| 2019 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2020 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2021 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2022 | -18.01% | -22.98% |
| 2023 | -0.08% | -9.18% |
| 2024 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2025 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| 2026 | -0.00% | -0.00% |
| Year | Annualized Real Return | MWR 20yr | P-MWR 20yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 6.09% | 5.37% | 3.72% |
| 1971 | 5.21% | 6.04% | 3.85% |
| 1972 | 5.20% | 5.45% | 3.47% |
| 1973 | 3.87% | 4.75% | 2.53% |
| 1974 | 6.08% | 6.23% | 4.32% |
| 1975 | 8.36% | 9.73% | 7.78% |
| 1976 | 8.03% | 8.43% | 6.63% |
| 1977 | 8.08% | 8.30% | 6.54% |
| 1978 | 9.04% | 9.33% | 7.68% |
| 1979 | 9.73% | 9.37% | 7.91% |
| 1980 | 10.86% | 10.28% | 8.97% |
| 1981 | 9.21% | 10.00% | 8.28% |
| 1982 | 8.80% | 12.34% | 10.06% |
| 1983 | 7.12% | 12.87% | 9.62% |
| 1984 | 7.66% | 12.05% | 9.29% |
| 1985 | 8.16% | 13.12% | 10.38% |
| 1986 | 6.82% | 10.77% | 7.89% |
| 1987 | 5.84% | 8.32% | 5.65% |
| 1988 | 5.53% | 7.93% | 5.22% |
| 1989 | 1.95% | 7.08% | 2.27% |
| 1990 | 2.71% | 6.50% | 2.69% |
| 1991 | 4.54% | 8.53% | 5.02% |
| 1992 | 3.26% | 7.82% | 3.70% |
| 1993 | 4.41% | 8.81% | 5.10% |
| 1994 | 4.50% | 7.79% | 4.56% |
| 1995 | 4.52% | 7.97% | 4.68% |
| 1996 | 3.54% | 7.11% | 3.56% |
| 1997 | 3.37% | 6.71% | 3.25% |
| 1998 | 3.73% | 6.10% | 3.17% |
| 1999 | 2.13% | 5.16% | 1.77% |
| 2000 | 2.24% | 4.32% | 1.55% |
| 2001 | 3.87% | 5.24% | 2.79% |
| 2002 | 5.44% | 6.59% | 4.30% |
| 2003 | 5.36% | 8.80% | 5.71% |
| 2004 | 4.82% | 7.14% | 4.36% |
| 2005 | 4.92% | 6.73% | 4.15% |
| 2006 | 5.55% | 6.63% | 4.38% |
| 2007 | 5.20% | 5.92% | 3.77% |
| Year | Annualized Real Return | SWR 30yr | P-SWR 30yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 6.80% | 4.65% | 4.00% |
| 1971 | 6.45% | 5.24% | 4.44% |
| 1972 | 5.25% | 4.76% | 3.73% |
| 1973 | 3.79% | 4.16% | 2.80% |
| 1974 | 5.57% | 5.47% | 4.40% |
| 1975 | 7.37% | 8.55% | 7.54% |
| 1976 | 6.78% | 7.39% | 6.36% |
| 1977 | 7.04% | 7.25% | 6.31% |
| 1978 | 7.38% | 8.14% | 7.18% |
| 1979 | 5.26% | 8.13% | 6.38% |
| 1980 | 6.20% | 8.77% | 7.33% |
| 1981 | 6.15% | 8.38% | 6.98% |
| 1982 | 6.21% | 10.20% | 8.53% |
| 1983 | 6.48% | 10.46% | 8.87% |
| 1984 | 6.57% | 9.71% | 8.27% |
| 1985 | 6.63% | 10.45% | 8.93% |
| 1986 | 5.45% | 8.45% | 6.73% |
| 1987 | 4.47% | 6.44% | 4.71% |
| 1988 | 4.79% | 6.08% | 4.58% |
| 1989 | 3.83% | 5.39% | 3.65% |
| 1990 | 4.20% | 5.02% | 3.56% |
| 1991 | 5.55% | 6.65% | 5.34% |
| 1992 | 5.41% | 6.12% | 4.86% |
| 1993 | 4.78% | 6.97% | 5.26% |
| 1994 | 4.74% | 6.17% | 4.63% |
| 1995 | 5.09% | 6.33% | 4.90% |
| 1996 | 5.14% | 5.65% | 4.39% |
| 1997 | 5.13% | 5.38% | 4.18% |
| Year | VT |
|---|---|
| 1970 | 100.00% |
| 1971 | 100.00% |
| 1972 | 100.00% |
| 1973 | 100.00% |
| 1974 | 100.00% |
| 1975 | 100.00% |
| 1976 | 100.00% |
| 1977 | 100.00% |
| 1978 | 100.00% |
| 1979 | 100.00% |
| 1980 | 100.00% |
| 1981 | 100.00% |
| 1982 | 100.00% |
| 1983 | 100.00% |
| 1984 | 100.00% |
| 1985 | 100.00% |
| 1986 | 100.00% |
| 1987 | 100.00% |
| 1988 | 100.00% |
| 1989 | 100.00% |
| 1990 | 100.00% |
| 1991 | 100.00% |
| 1992 | 100.00% |
| 1993 | 100.00% |
| 1994 | 100.00% |
| 1995 | 100.00% |
| 1996 | 100.00% |
| 1997 | 100.00% |
| 1998 | 100.00% |
| 1999 | 100.00% |
| 2000 | 100.00% |
| 2001 | 100.00% |
| 2002 | 100.00% |
| 2003 | 100.00% |
| 2004 | 100.00% |
| 2005 | 100.00% |
| 2006 | 100.00% |
| 2007 | 100.00% |
| 2008 | 100.00% |
| 2009 | 100.00% |
| 2010 | 100.00% |
| 2011 | 100.00% |
| 2012 | 100.00% |
| 2013 | 100.00% |
| 2014 | 100.00% |
| 2015 | 100.00% |
| 2016 | 100.00% |
| 2017 | 100.00% |
| 2018 | 100.00% |
| 2019 | 100.00% |
| 2020 | 100.00% |
| 2021 | 100.00% |
| 2022 | 100.00% |
| 2023 | 100.00% |
| 2024 | 100.00% |
| 2025 | 100.00% |
| 2026 | 100.00% |
Name:P1: (100% VT)
| Ticker | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| VT | 100.00% | |
| Total Weight | 100% |
100%
Total
VTVanguard Total World Stock ETF100.00%
| Metric | Nominal | Real |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Return | 9.42% | 5.31% |
| StdDev | 17.07% | 17.00% |
Skewness | -0.1053 | -0.0959 |
Kurtosis | 0.4887 | 0.3135 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.3743 | |
| Estimated Return | 5.70% | |
| Max Draw Down | -42.38% | -47.66% |
+1StdDev
+2StdDev
+3StdDev
-1StdDev
-2StdDev
-3StdDev
Estimated Mean
Diff to Mean
Real Cumulative Growth
VT
Nominal
Real
Rolling 20 year real return
Max Withdrawal Rate 20
Permanent Max Withdrawal Rate 20
Rolling 30 year real return
Max Withdrawal Rate 30
Permanent Max Withdrawal Rate 30